Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Chartbook Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Brazil - Tailwinds amid political and fiscal headwinds
- Colombia - Supported by economic tailwinds, but…
- Peru - Slump as pension-fund withdrawal fears loom
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The minutes of the last policy meeting indicated a more hawkish stance from Banxico than expected.
- But the March inflation data undershot expectations, which will allow the Board to ease its tone.
- This, combined with the expected accommodative stance from the Fed, means more rate cuts ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation consolidated in the Andes in March, but we expect the downtrend to continue in Q2.
- This will provide room for further policy accommodation, but policymakers will proceed with caution…
- …And rate cuts will be modest, given a number of domestic and external threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A busy week for Andean economies amid economic and political developments.
- Chile’s central bank maintained its stance of gradual easing and flagged inflation risks.
- Upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts in the IPoM point to a smoother easing path ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Domestic and external factors weighing
- Mexican Peso — Outperforming amid attractive carry
- Colombian Peso — Attractive carry, supportive oil dynamics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s recovery remains on a solid footing, aided by improving domestic and external conditions.
- The performance is encouraging, but caution is warranted, as the upturn could still face headwinds.
- The good start to the year won’t stop the BCCh cutting rates further, which is still badly needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…
- …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian inflation overshot in March due to elevated food prices, yet core pressures are stable.
- We expect disinflation to gather momentum in Q2 as weather conditions ameliorate.
- The COPOM meeting minutes hint at further rate reductions of 50bp in May and possibly June.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep ramped up the easing pace to 50bp, taking rates to a still-eye-watering 12.25%.
- The March decision was a divided vote, with future rate cuts expected to be data-dependent.
- BanRep will have some flexibility, given lower inflation, better external conditions and weak GDP.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM voted unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 50bp, as expected, but has exercised caution.
- The forward guidance has been limited to one meeting ahead, due to increased uncertainty.
- A further 50bp rate cut in May is likely, with subsequent decisions contingent on the data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s cabinet meeting to address issues
- Argentina — Senate rejects mega-decree
- Colombia — Petro wants a new constitution
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economy started the year strongly, despite the prevailing high interest rates.
- Private consumption, especially services, is strengthening, offsetting the industrial sector’s sluggishness.
- We expect the COPOM to cut the Selic rate by another 50bp today and retain its dovish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy had a poor end to 2023, due to still-high interest rates and uneven consumer demand…
- …But the big picture is of an economy gradually gathering speed, and the outlook is upbeat.
- The recovery will likely continue this year, accompanied by healthy external accounts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s inflation data for February highlights challenges, with emerging optimism for the future.
- President Milei’s reforms are driving confidence amid economic stabilisation efforts.
- The government will need to hone its approach to avoid stifling the economy and causing social unrest.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Facing mixed influences, but outlook upbeat
- Colombia — Positive trend, but politics a threat
- Chile — Solid domestic and external conditions
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Another 50bp rate cut is warranted in Brazil next week, with underlying inflation in check.
- We still see the possibility of a bigger cut in Q2, but challenging external conditions are posing a threat.
- Mexico’s industrial sector faces challenges despite the good start to Q1; future prospects are bright.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- US job market data stabilises yields, boosting LatAm currencies and easing pressure on policymakers.
- Colombia’s disinflation pace eased in February but will soon gather speed, as domestic demand is struggling.
- The COP’s stability will also help, assuming President Petro continues to face challenges in Congress.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The swift decline in inflation in Mexico paves the way for a potential interest rate reduction this month.
- Services inflation remains sticky, but softening economic activity indicates an upcoming downtrend.
- Brazil’s industry had a bad start to 2024, but leading indicators point to brighter conditions on the horizon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Stability amid uncertainty
- Chilean Peso — Unattractive carry trade is hurting
- Peruvian New Sol — Leading the EM pack amid challenges
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Mexican presidential election campaign officially kicks off after nine months of preparations.
- The incumbent party’s candidate continues to lead the polls, as the economy is still faring relatively well.
- Sheinbaum’s “next phase of transformation” focuses on infrastructure, social aid and renewables.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America