Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Chartbook Datanotes Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: A landslide victory for Ms Sheinbaum.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
- The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...
- ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling on a sequential basis, despite the solid headline numbers.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico is bracing for historic elections, as Claudia Sheinbaum—AMLO’s protégée—eyes the presidency.
- Financial markets anticipate a Sheinbaum victory, but uncertainties linger and a surprise could happen.
- Legislative outcomes will shape Mexico’s economic outlook amid concerns over AMLO’s interventionism.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s May inflation data support a 25bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on June 19, but risks linger…
- …The floods in the south of the country have had a limited impact so far, but the hit will be felt soon.
- Inflation expectations are on the rise; a further deterioration would limit the central bank’s options.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Gradual rate cuts ahead; data to guide pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s Q1 GDP upward revision masks the underlying economic slowdown; rate cuts are badly needed.
- Pre-election spending will fuel short-term growth, despite rising public debt and economic challenges.
- Core inflation is easing in May, allowing a still-hawkish Banxico to consider rate cuts next month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mixed signals in Colombia’s Q1 GDP, as strong consumption clashes with weak investment.
- Policy uncertainty under President Petro is stifling the investment recovery; the outlook remains bleak.
- The more than 30% collapse in capex since Petro took office highlights the hit, amid high interest rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy gained traction in Q1, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand.
- Falling inflation and lower interest rates are gradually supporting the upturn, but downside risks remain.
- The recovery will likely lose speed but won’t collapse; further monetary policy normalisation will help.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP cut the policy rate by 25bp to 5.75% and delivered a dovish shift in the inflation outlook.
- Further easing will depend on inflation dynamics and its determinants; US Fed policy will also play a role.
- Inflation in Chile surprised to the upside in April, which will force the BCCh to act with more caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s disinflation in April supports COPOM’s cautiously dovish stance in the near term…
- …But fiscal woes and external factors, particularly the US Fed, will continue to influence monetary policy.
- Rio Grande do Sul floods add to COPOM’s challenges and could alter the monetary policy outlook for H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core disinflation remains on track, but food prices are now a problem.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut as inflation risks have tilted to the upside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Headwinds amid shifting US rate outlook
- Mexico — Facing challenges amid elevated interest rates
- Chile — Improved outlook, but inflation risks linger
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s central bank slowed the pace of rate cuts due to fiscal risks and rising inflation expectations.
- Policymakers have abandoned their previous forward guidance and become more data-dependent.
- The hawkish rate cut signals a cautious approach in H2, but the outlook for 2025 will be different.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, and the outlook is benign
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America