5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

3 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial weakness deepens, strengthening case for BCB easing

• Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
• …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
• Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.

2 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile enters Q4 with firmer growth; political clarity will boost confidence

• The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand
  lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
• …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer
  momentum heading into early 2026.
• Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline
  under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.

26 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation and retail data support Banxico's cautious policy

• Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s 
  data-dependent easing.
• Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
• Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.

25 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's overheating economy tests BanRep's inflation resolve

• Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
• Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
• High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.

20 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Political noise and policy risks mount across the region

• Brazil — Politics entering a noisy phase
• Mexico — Security tensions and USMCA risks
• Colombia —  Risks rising ahead of 2026 election

19 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile facing decisive run-off after fragmented first round boosts right

• Chile’s election showed right-leaning voters rallying behind Kast, giving him an advantage in the run-off…
• …While the left will be limited by its narrow base, struggling to broaden support beyond core voters.
• Q3 GDP suffered a small fall as mining disruption offset solid growth across key non-mining sectors.

18 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economy slowing rapidly in Q3; Chile's first round fragmented

• Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
• Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
• Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.

14 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's disinflation firms as activity softens; COPOM signals patience

• Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
• Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
• The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.

13 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Excellent recent performance, and Q1 outlook is relatively benign

• Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
• Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
• Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious

12 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Broad-based disinflation in Chile; fiscal risks shaping 2026 outlook

• Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
• Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
• Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.

7 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BCB stands pat, showing caution on inflation; Banxico cuts, as expected

• The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
• Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
• …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.

6 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mixed performance with Andean currencies appreciating despite political noise

• Brazilian Real —  Slips modestly on global headwinds
• Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
• Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution

5 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial sector struggles as BCB prepares for gradual shift

• Brazil’s industrial output shrank again, highlighting persistent weakness across key sectors.
• The labour market—the economy’s last major support pillar—is softening amid tariff shocks and high rates.
• We expect the COPOM to hold rates at 15% today, but easing signals are likely as disinflation gains traction.

4 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep holds rates as inflation risks persist; Chile's recovery continues

• High inflation and wage pressures reinforce BanRep’s cautious policy normalisation stance.
• The fiscal strategy has shifted towards revenue measures, as structural rigidities limit spending cuts.
• Chile’s broad-based rebound in September confirms domestic demand strength and easing mining issues.

29 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Labour markets in Brazil and Mexico show signs of softening

• The job market is softening in Mexico as weak growth and investment weigh on employment creation.
• Brazil’s unemployment rate remains close to lows, but beneath the surface it is gradually cooling…
• …This resilience masks weakening fundamentals as high real rates and fading fiscal buffers bite.

28 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Policy shift nears in Brazil as disinflation deepens; Milei's win

• October’s IPCA-15 shows headline inflation is back below 5% in Brazil, amid weaker demand…
• …A resilient BRL and falling fuel costs strengthen the case for a cautious BCB rate cut.
• Mr. Milei’s legislative win boosts Argentinian assets, limits governability risk and opens door to reform.

24 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's economy weakened in Q3, but fragile stabilisation lies ahead

• Industry in Mexico remains in contraction, with services sustaining limited but consistent growth.
• Easing headline inflation gives Banxico room to make cautious, data-driven policy rate cuts.
• Fiscal support and lower rates will help cushion growth, but structural headwinds persist into 2026.

22 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Mr. Petro's reckless diplomacy deepens crisis with Washington

• President Petro’s confrontation with Washington risks undoing decades of cooperation and stability.
• Economic activity is weakening as the construction and service sectors lose growth momentum.
• Fiscal pressures, policy uncertainty and political noise threaten the fragile recovery.