Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Brazil’s COPOM continued its cautious easing, as rising inflation risk limits scope for greater action…
- …The oil shock and fiscal uncertainty complicate the policy outlook, reinforcing the need for gradual cuts.
- Oil-related inflation risks rise, while weaker domestic activity keeps BCCh firmly in wait-and-see mode.
- Brazil’s inflation story is shifting; external shocks are driving a renewed increase in prices.
- The key challenge now is to stop a temporary shock becoming persistent; the COPOM will be cautious.
- Exports are surging in Mexico on non-manufacturing strength, but weak capex limits broader gains.
- Activity is weakening in Argentina, with domestic sectors lagging behind primary sectors.
- Growth is becoming less labour-intensive; external sectors are solid while domestic demand is subdued.
- The export-led recovery looks sustainable, but weak consumption and capex mean uneven growth in Q2.
- Inflation continues to ease in Mexico, but core pressures are sticky and non-core volatility persists.
- Retail sales are weakening, with tighter financial conditions and remittances weighing on households.
- Banxico will ease cautiously as slower growth supports cuts but persistent inflation limits the pace.
- Consumption is driving activity in Colombia, but it is concentrated in durable goods and sensitive to rates.
- Industry and primary sectors remain weak, highlighting structural issues and fragile growth dynamics.
- Tighter financial conditions will weigh on demand, with the slowdown led by key consumption segments.
- Core inflation in Argentina remains elevated, as indexation and second-round effects still bite.
- Temporary shocks are fading slowly as fuel, tariffs and food prices are feeding broader inflation dynamics.
- Policy credibility holds, but a high inflation floor implies a slower and less even disinflation path this year.
- Brazil — Election tightens as fiscal loosening intensifies
- Argentina — Reform agenda faces judicial limits
- Colombia — Run-off maths dominate
- Colombia’s fiscal anchor has gone, as deficits, rising debt and weak revenues undermine credibility.
- Inflation pressures are persistent and broader, forcing BanRep to tighten despite growth already softening.
- COP resilience looks fragile, with markets likely to drive a correction via interest rates and FX.
- The shock from Camisea disruption and higher oil prices drives broad-based inflation pressures in Peru.
- The core inflation spike signals wider cost pressures, raising risks of persistence and second-round effects.
- The BCRP is likely to stay on hold, but risks are now tilted towards tightening sooner than expected.
- Lower oil prices bring temporary inflation relief, but core pressures remain persistent in Mexico.
- Banxico has limited room to ease while inflation is elevated and expectations remain vulnerable.
- Markets are underestimating geopolitical risk; the inflation outlook and easing path are even more fragile.
- Brazil — Ceasefire triggers relief rally
- Chile — Upside support driven by oil-price reversal
- Peru — External drivers back in control
- Growth in Chile is losing speed, but the central bank has no room to respond any time soon.
- High oil prices are worsening the inflation outlook, limiting the scope for easing.
- Weak activity, high unemployment, fragile confidence and tight policy are delaying the recovery.
- Mexican peso — Policy shift weakens the carry story
- Colombian peso — Carry and oil drive outperformance
- Chilean peso — Oil shock dominates the outlook
- Brazil’s job market is cooling from tight levels, limiting faster disinflation and prospects for rate cuts.
- Mexico’s labour market is tight at the headline level, but job quality is deteriorating, with rising informality…
- …Strong wage growth supports consumption but reinforces inflation pressures and structural issues.
- Fiscal discipline anchors stability in Argentina, but household weakness is constraining the recovery.
- Inflation remains sticky, limiting policy easing and complicating the economic upturn.
- The energy sector is supporting growth, but financial vulnerabilities are high.
- The oil-driven inflation shock is delaying easing in Chile, and even raising the probability of tightening.
- The growth outlook has weakened as tighter financial conditions and fiscal restraint bite.
- Policy is on hold for now, but risks have tilted clearly to the hawkish side in Chile and the region as a whole.
- Food and energy shocks have driven inflation higher in Mexico, but core pressures are contained.
- Economic activity weakened sharply at the start of the year, signalling a broader loss of momentum.
- Banxico will hold rates, as inflation risks are persisting and growth slowing, reinforcing its cautious stance.
- Consumption remains resilient in Mexico, but softening fundamentals signal momentum will slow ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and higher energy prices limit room for Banxico to resume its easing cycle soon…
- …It will likely prioritise its credibility, delaying cuts as external risks and inflation pressures intensify.
- Brazil’s rate cut marks the start of the easing cycle, but the inflation outlook has become more uncertain.
- External shocks and oil prices will curb disinflation, reinforcing the need for gradual policy adjustment.
- The COPOM is keeping its options open, but high uncertainty limits scope for faster rate cuts ahead.
- Brazil — Election race tightens as fiscal risks mount
- Mexico — Fiscal push meets market volatility
- Colombia — Fragmentation sharpens electoral maths
