Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Consumption and fiscal support continue to cushion activity in Brazil, despite high interest rates
- Investment and confidence indicators point to softer domestic demand over the next three-to-six months.
- Persistent inflation pressures will likely keep the COPOM cautious about further easing.
- Brazil — Institutional tensions deepen
- Mexico — Morena facing mounting pressure
- Colombia — Violence reshaping presidential election
- Primary sectors dragged Chilean growth lower in Q1, despite relatively resilient domestic demand.
- Higher oil prices now threaten inflation, household incomes and the external accounts simultaneously.
- Weak activity will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite elevated external uncertainty and inflation risks.
- Government spending and resilient household demand continue to support activity in Colombia.
- Construction, housing and tradeable sectors remain weak, limiting productive-capacity growth.
- Persistent domestic demand reinforces inflation pressures and strengthens the case for rate hikes.
- Brazil — Domestic issues cool the external-driven rally
- Mexico — Consolidating after a solid rally
- Colombia — Local flows prevent an uglier picture
- Banxico’s split vote highlights growing fears over persistent inflation and narrowing room for rate cuts.
- Weak growth and greater economic slack justify final rate cut despite elevated inflation concerns.
- External risks from oil prices, Fed uncertainty and MXN volatility dominate Banxico’s reaction function.
- Mexican peso — Resilient rebound as USD softens
- Colombian peso — Rally fades as policy doubts cap gains
- Chilean peso — Partial recovery as external issues ease
- Mexico’s broad-based decline in growth in Q1 reflects weakening consumption and capex.
- A temporary Q2 rebound driven by the World Cup and seasonal factors will not sustain stronger growth.
- Limited monetary easing and fragile fiscal dynamics constrain policy support; downside risks prevail.
- Brazil’s COPOM continued its cautious easing, as rising inflation risk limits scope for greater action…
- …The oil shock and fiscal uncertainty complicate the policy outlook, reinforcing the need for gradual cuts.
- Oil-related inflation risks rise, while weaker domestic activity keeps BCCh firmly in wait-and-see mode.
- Brazil’s inflation story is shifting; external shocks are driving a renewed increase in prices.
- The key challenge now is to stop a temporary shock becoming persistent; the COPOM will be cautious.
- Exports are surging in Mexico on non-manufacturing strength, but weak capex limits broader gains.
- Activity is weakening in Argentina, with domestic sectors lagging behind primary sectors.
- Growth is becoming less labour-intensive; external sectors are solid while domestic demand is subdued.
- The export-led recovery looks sustainable, but weak consumption and capex mean uneven growth in Q2.
- Inflation continues to ease in Mexico, but core pressures are sticky and non-core volatility persists.
- Retail sales are weakening, with tighter financial conditions and remittances weighing on households.
- Banxico will ease cautiously as slower growth supports cuts but persistent inflation limits the pace.
- Consumption is driving activity in Colombia, but it is concentrated in durable goods and sensitive to rates.
- Industry and primary sectors remain weak, highlighting structural issues and fragile growth dynamics.
- Tighter financial conditions will weigh on demand, with the slowdown led by key consumption segments.
- Core inflation in Argentina remains elevated, as indexation and second-round effects still bite.
- Temporary shocks are fading slowly as fuel, tariffs and food prices are feeding broader inflation dynamics.
- Policy credibility holds, but a high inflation floor implies a slower and less even disinflation path this year.
- Brazil — Election tightens as fiscal loosening intensifies
- Argentina — Reform agenda faces judicial limits
- Colombia — Run-off maths dominate
- Colombia’s fiscal anchor has gone, as deficits, rising debt and weak revenues undermine credibility.
- Inflation pressures are persistent and broader, forcing BanRep to tighten despite growth already softening.
- COP resilience looks fragile, with markets likely to drive a correction via interest rates and FX.
- The shock from Camisea disruption and higher oil prices drives broad-based inflation pressures in Peru.
- The core inflation spike signals wider cost pressures, raising risks of persistence and second-round effects.
- The BCRP is likely to stay on hold, but risks are now tilted towards tightening sooner than expected.
- Lower oil prices bring temporary inflation relief, but core pressures remain persistent in Mexico.
- Banxico has limited room to ease while inflation is elevated and expectations remain vulnerable.
- Markets are underestimating geopolitical risk; the inflation outlook and easing path are even more fragile.
- Brazil — Ceasefire triggers relief rally
- Chile — Upside support driven by oil-price reversal
- Peru — External drivers back in control
- Growth in Chile is losing speed, but the central bank has no room to respond any time soon.
- High oil prices are worsening the inflation outlook, limiting the scope for easing.
- Weak activity, high unemployment, fragile confidence and tight policy are delaying the recovery.
