Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Chartbook Datanotes Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- Brazil's July IPCA undershot expectations, with the inflation rate easing to 5.2% from 5.4% in June…
- …Falling food and industrial goods prices, plus a stronger BRL, point to continued gradual disinflation.
- We expect the BCRP to hold at 4.50% this week, though a 25bp cut later this year remains possible.
- Chile's July CPI jumped, on electricity and services, pushing up inflation for the first time since March.
- BCCh launched an USD18.5B reserve accumulation plan to cut its reliance on a shrinking IMF credit line.
- Colombia’s inflation rose, as structural pressures persist, delaying the prospect of further rate cuts.
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, but risks linger.
- Brazilian Real — Under strain as trade risk rises
- Mexican Peso — Holding firm amid headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Rally ended by an array of risks
- Chile's non-mining sectors remain robust, helped by strong consumption and improving investment.
- The slump in mining output is weighing on headline growth, but external demand and copper are buffers.
- Fiscal pressures are rising as revenues lag behind target, raising the risk of budget-tightening ahead.
- Sticky core inflation and rising wage risk delay further cuts in Colombia, despite headline disinflation.
- Governor Villar flagged the worsening public finances; FM Bonilla offered little clarity on budget plans.
- We expect a shallow easing cycle, with cuts resuming only if inflation risks ease meaningfully.
- In one line: Industrial output disappoints again as tariffs loom.
- In one line: Mining volatility drags on Q2, but growth outlook holds firm.
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS UNEVEN AMID POLICY AND RISK…
- …DISINFLATION IS PROGRESSING, BUT GROWTH REMAINS FRAGILE
- In one line: Labour market still strong, but momentum set to fade.
- In one line: Retail strength holds; mining hit by temporary setback.
- In one line: On hold, signalling caution amid heightened uncertainty.
- In one line: Solid momentum but headwinds lingering.
- The COPOM kept rates on hold and a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation and global risks…
- …US tariffs raise external threats, but exemptions soften the impact on Brazil’s key export sectors.
- BCCh resumed its easing cycle with a 25bp cut, signalling a gradual return to neutral if warranted.
- Brazil’s COPOM is likely to keep rates elevated amid sticky inflation, BRL volatility and fiscal uncertainty.
- Non-oil exports surged in Mexico, led by electronics, while the auto sector remains under pressure…
- …Imports signal economic slowdown, as capital goods and consumer demand shrink once again.
- Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
- Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
- Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.
- In one line: Inflation stabilises as demand cools.
- In one line: Core inflation softens, allowing further monetary policy normalisation.
- Disinflation has resumed in Mexico, driven by softer food and energy prices; services are still a challenge.
- Favourable base effects, a stronger MXN and subdued demand continue to support disinflation.
- July data support a 25bp Banxico rate cut, as structural pressure limits the magnitude of easing.
- In one line: Mexico’s growth holding up in Q2, but headwinds are mounting.
