- In one line: Disinflation continues; more good news to come.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thursday’s triple threat of policy meetings in Brazil, Chile and Colombia is the main event this week.
- Will the rapid disinflation in Brazil allow the COPOM to accelerate the pace of easing this week?
- Similarly, in the Andes, policymakers will increase the magnitude of rate cuts, also thanks to rapid disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Poor economic activity and soft core inflation pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, by some way.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling, despite relatively positive sectoral data in November.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Activity in Mexico’s retail sector is slowing, despite falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market…
- …But rising real interest rates and softening remittances from abroad will constrain the sector.
- Consumers will likely become more cautious until key domestic and external threats disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good report, boosted by Black Friday sales.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industry is weakening, and risks are tilted to the downside as US manufacturing struggles.
- Construction activity is slowing, but this follows an impressive and unsustainable H1 2023.
- Geopolitical threats, alongside high interest rates and the US and Mexican elections, are the key risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: More rate cuts to come, despite the still-cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm economic activity is under pressure, helping to bring inflation back under control.
- Still-tight financial conditions are hurting key sectors, but the economic outlook will improve soon.
- Rate cuts will help to revive activity, but increased political and geopolitical uncertainty is a threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FALTERING AND INFLATION FALLING...
- ...BUT CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN CAUTIOUS, FOR NOW
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A soft start to the quarter, despite the strong-looking headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Economic activity is grinding to a halt.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm central banks pushed back on aggressive rate-cut expectations, despite the Fed’s policy shift.
- Banxico doubled down on its cautious approach, but we still think that rate cuts will come soon.
- Peru’s BCRP also embraced prudence, but bolder action will be possible in Q1, El Niño permitting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s November inflation numbers support the case for bolder rate cuts during Q1, fiscal issues permitting.
- Headline inflation is declining faster than expected in Colombia, but the core remains sticky, for now.
- The headline inflation fall is good enough to trigger action by BanRep next week.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A sharp m/m increase, but the rapid downtrend will resume soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America