Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Chartbook Daily Monitor Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- USMCA compliance shields Mexico, for now, as tariff risks shift to non-aligning sectors.
- The US tariff war creates winners in LatAm, as Asia bears the brunt, but collateral damage is a threat.
- Faltering sentiment and tight financial conditions are weighing on Brazil’s industrial sector.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BanRep left rates on hold, due to persistent inflation pressures despite mixed progress…
- …But new Board members boost the doves’ influence, hinting at potential rate cuts ahead, COP permitting.
- Chile’s IMACEC highlights temporary setbacks in the recovery, but fundamentals point to sustained growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economic data for February show weakness, but growth momentum remains positive for Q1.
- Geopolitical tensions and the US trade war threaten Chile’s trade-dependent economy and key sectors.
- Argentina’s economy has started Q1 on a solid footing, but key challenges are emerging.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
CENTRAL BANKS FACE A COMPLEX EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT…
- …VIGILANCE AND POLICY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- March IPCA-15 data show inflation rising due to temporary shocks in food and transportation costs.
- Inflation is likely to average 5.5% in Q2 before stabilising in H2, but wholesale prices signal upside risks.
- The current account deficit widened sharply, but FDI remains a positive sign, despite external noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico can press on with further easing tomorrow thanks to muted inflation and softening growth.
- Weakening domestic demand signals room for rate cuts, as policymakers monitor external risks.
- The MXN rebound and subdued core pressures support gradual easing, despite lingering threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s BCCh held rates again, highlighting inflation risks, a resilient domestic economy and tariff threats.
- The IPoM shows the economy growing more than expected despite global uncertainty and trade tensions.
- Disinflation is likely to continue, and output will be limited by trade noise, allowing rate cuts later this year.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula cutting taxes to regain popularity
- Mexico — Reforms, controversies and trade hurdles
- Colombia — Turbulent times amid reform efforts
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economic recovery gained momentum despite still-tight financial conditions and external noise.
- Q4 growth was driven by private consumption and capex; manufacturing and construction lagged.
- External risks remain significant and will prevent the BCCh from cutting rates to neutral any time soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm central banks face a complex external environment; vigilance and policy adjustments are needed.
- The BCRP remained cautious amid global risks and strong economic activity, despite falling inflation.
- Brazil’s economic activity is slowing despite initial optimism in its early-2025 performance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation in February hit its highest rate since 2023, as underlying pressures are persisting, for now.
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in January, with trade-war uncertainty weighing heavily.
- The manufacturing sector is struggling as US tariffs threaten Mexico’s economic backbone and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A modest performance amid volatility
- Mexico — Hit by US tariff policy uncertainty
- Colombia — Oil, tariffs and politics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- High interest rates and global demand weakness are weighing on Brazil’s industrial production.
- Persistent inflation pressures challenge Colombia’s BanRep, delaying rate cuts and stifling growth.
- High indexation and labour costs will keep inflation above the Bank’s target in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s inflation is edging higher on base effects, but underlying trends remain favourable for Banxico.
- Chile’s disinflation resumed in February after an electricity-tariff shock, but BCCh is likely to stay cautious.
- Policy easing will face headwinds from the tariff noise, commodity prices and currency movements.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy is struggling as tariffs noise fuel uncertainty, weighing on trade, capex and confidence.
- Private consumption and investment are plunging; remittances from the US face growing threats.
- Colombia’s external accounts are seeing lower deficits, robust remittances and an improving outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Resilience in the face of adversity
- Argentinian Peso — Path to stability, US permitting
- Chilean Peso — Solid domestic drivers
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy started Q1 on a solid footing, thanks mainly to increased private consumption.
- Solid economic momentum likely will persist ahead, but a softening labour market is a threat.
- Colombia’s job market is improving, and 2025 will be solid, as Mr. Petro’s presidency nears its end.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Milei has achieved the ‘miracle’ of macro stabilisation without wrecking Argentina’s economy.
- The sectoral performance highlights strength in agriculture, mining and retail; construction lags behind.
- Peru’s disinflation is continuing, still within the central bank’s target range amid external uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
TRADE NOISE TESTS LATAM’S RESILIENCE…
- …AND TIGHT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS REMAIN A THREAT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s external accounts are still healthy, but thanks to a solid H1 2024; risks emerged in Q4.
- Trade uncertainty likely will deter new investment, particularly in H1; remittances will face volatility.
- The labour market remains strong, at face value, but signs of weakening are becoming clearer.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
