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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)

24 April 2024 LatAm Monitor LatAm central banks adopt a more hawkish position, on a cautious Fed

  • LatAm central banks are taking a cautious approach to monetary policy due to a still-hawkish Fed.
  • Mexico’s economic activity rebounded solidly in February, helping to avert a sharper downturn in Q1.
  • Increased fiscal support is boosting growth, but rising real rates pose challenges in H2.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

23 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Widespread protests challenge Petro's agenda in Colombia

  • Thousands of Colombians protest against Petro’s economic and social reforms; good news for the COP.
  • Economic activity is struggling to gain momentum, due to tight financial conditions and policy risk.
  • The improving external accounts provide BanRep with flexibility; we expect further bold rate cuts in Q2.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

22 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Poor start to the year for retail sales in Mexico, due to high interest rates

  • Retail sales in Mexico performed poorly in Q1, due mainly to tighter financial conditions.
  • The bad news won’t last; the sector will be supported by falling inflation and lower rates.
  • The outlook, however, will likely be tempered by remittance trends and external risks.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

19 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economy starts 2024 on a solid footing, but challenges loom

  • Brazil’s economic activity saw a solid improvement in February, as private consumption gathers speed.
  • Increased fiscal uncertainty and a cautious US Fed complicate Brazil’s economic and rates outlook.
  • The minutes of the last BCCh policy meeting strike a more dovish tone, but things have changed recently.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

18 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Political noise is rising in volume!

  • Brazil — Revised fiscal forecasts presented to Congress
  • Mexico — Recap of the first presidential debate
  • Colombia — Concerns over Petro’s populist measures

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

17 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Milei's reforms helping to curb Argentina's soaring inflation

  • Fiscal and exchange rate measures curb Argentina’s inflation picture; we expect further good news.
  • Argentina’s fiscal situation is showing signs of improvement as the government tackles the deficit.
  • Peru’s economy is gaining momentum amid low inflation and looser monetary policy.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

16 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Industry to drag on Mexico's Q1 GDP despite manufacturing revival

  • Mexico’s industrial sector will drag on Q1 GDP amid construction woes, despite manufacturing reviving.
  • Residential construction is struggling, but infrastructure is showing signs of improvement.
  • The long downturn in manufacturing output is over, according to the PMI, but downside risks remain.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

15 April 2024 LatAm Monitor BRCP resumes rate cuts, defying the consensus forecast

  • Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
  • Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
  • Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Broadening disinflation paves way for bold COPOM rate cut in May

  • Brazil’s March inflation data clear a path for solid monetary easing by the COPOM in May…
  • …But robust private consumption could mean the BCB adopts a more measured stance in H2.
  • Retail sales rebounded sharply in Q1 amid improving credit conditions; will this trend continue?

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA-15, Brazil, March, 2024

  • In one line: Back to the target range, and the near-term outlook is benign.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Facing headwinds amid economic challenges and political risks

  • Brazil  - Tailwinds amid political and fiscal headwinds
  • Colombia - Supported by economic tailwinds, but…
  • Peru - Slump as pension-fund withdrawal fears loom

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, March, 2024

  • In one line: Further interest rate cuts likely, as inflation pressures continue to ease.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Easing inflationary pressures good news for still-hawkish Banxico

  • The minutes of the last policy meeting indicated a more hawkish stance from Banxico than expected. 
  • But the March inflation data undershot expectations, which will allow the Board to ease its tone.
  • This, combined with the expected accommodative stance from the Fed, means more rate cuts ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Disinflation continuing in the Andes, but central banks to remain cautious

  • Disinflation consolidated in the Andes in March, but we expect the downtrend to continue in Q2.
  • This will provide room for further policy accommodation, but policymakers will proceed with caution…
  • …And rate cuts will be modest, given a number of domestic and external threats.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Will Brazil's industrial sector improve after a poor start to 2024?

  • Brazil’s industrial output is weak in Q1, due to tight financing conditions and despite some bright spots.
  • Rising business confidence signals manufacturing will gain momentum in Q2.
  • The external accounts remain robust; the 12-month trade surplus is at historic highs…will this continue?

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 April 2024 LatAm Monitor A tumultuous week in politics and for Andean countries' economies

  • A busy week for Andean economies amid economic and political developments.
  • Chile’s central bank maintained its stance of gradual easing and flagged inflation risks.
  • Upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts in the IPoM point to a smoother easing path ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 April 2024 LatAm Monitor Attractive carry trade dynamics remain a key driver

  • Brazilian Real — Domestic and external factors weighing
  • Mexican Peso —  Outperforming amid attractive carry
  • Colombian Peso — Attractive carry, supportive oil dynamics

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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