Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist) Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Finally falling at the headline level, but politics now a key risk.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Mexico moderated in August, but political risk and the MXN raise concerns.
- AMLO’s populist plans threaten to overshadow the improving inflation outlook via an MXN sell-off.
- The labour market is weakening, as formal job growth slows and informal employment dominates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Supporting BCCh’s cautious easing stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial production declined in July following a solid H1, and the outlook is now cautious.
- A weaker trade surplus and rising import demand point to mounting external pressures.
- Chile’s inflation rose in August; food and housing prices led the increase, due to temporary shocks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCCh resumed its easing, reflecting weaker growth and stable inflation expectations.
- The Bank signalled a faster path to neutral, in Q2 2025, acknowledging weaker domestic demand.
- We expect further rate cuts, to 5% by late Q4 and 4% by Q2 2025, but uncertainty is elevated.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s GDP surged 1.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, driven by strong industrial and service sector growth.
- Labour-market strength and government spending bolstered the economic recovery in H1…
- …But challenges loom: fiscal pressures and weakening indicators signal a potential slowdown.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Unemployment declines but economic challenges lie ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Mixed start to Q3, with industrial gains amid consumption challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Peru’s inflation is easing, as the core rate has hit BCRP’s target; it likely will continue to cut rates.- Chile’s economic activity rebounded in July, but challenges are persisting in key sectors.
- Colombia’s labour market is sending mixed signals amid an uneven economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s labour market showed resilience in H1, yet signs of a gradual slowdown are starting to emerge.
- Leading indicators signal the labour market is plateauing, due to tighter financial conditions.
- Industrial gains offset consumption challenges in Chile; the recovery remains sluggish.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s latest data paint a picture of a struggling economy, with risks tilted to the downside.
- We expect the BCCh to resume rate cuts to support the economic upturn, but electricity tariffs pose a risk.
- Improving external demand, rate cuts and Fed easing will support the economic recovery in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economic outlook suggests a continued shift towards monetary policy easing.
- Declining core inflation and stagnant economic activity will allow Banxico to cut rates further.
- The US Fed’s incoming easing cycle is one of the key reasons for further normalisation, but risks remain.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM is navigating inflation concerns and an economic slowdown, keeping a cautious stance.
- Inflation risks persist despite recent data, which will force the COPOM to hold rates in the near term.
- Softening economic activity, core inflation in check and the Fed’s easing will allow cuts in late Q4 or Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Manufacturing gains offset weakness in other sectors, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A mixed picture, as transportation costs rise while food prices decline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A prudent rate cut, defying consensus, reflects improved inflation dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest rate cut signals a shift towards further easing, with caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Non-core pressures drive significant gains, offsetting the good news in core.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation rebounds driven by rising electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
