Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Inflation has been slowing rapidly in September, reinforcing our expectations for a stable Selic rate.
- Underlying pressures are still under control, and we expect the picture to remain benign in Q4.
- The current account deficit is widening amid falling exports, resilient imports and fiscal concerns.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s inflation decline paves the way for Banxico to cut rates at tomorrow’s meeting.
- Weak economic growth is pressuring policymakers to ease further, but political noise will remain a risk.
- Brazil’s COPOM minutes signal caution, suggesting limited rate hikes amid slowing growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy has started H2 on a solid footing, as temporary shocks fade and inflation falls…
- …But manufacturing remains under pressure and formal employment growth is slowing.
- Banxico’s upcoming rate decision has to balance inflation control and policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM raised the Selic rate to 10.75% amid rising inflation risks and economic resilience.
- The market expects further rate hikes, but we see rates on hold as economic activity is faltering.
- Argentina’s GDP continued to fall in Q2 due to Mr. Milei’s reform efforts to put the economy on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal and policy challenges
- Mexico — Judicial reforms heighten political risk
- Colombia — Political turmoil clouds the economic outlook
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s inflation battle is far from over, despite some visible improvements.
- The government’s economic strategy will need to evolve to ensure lasting disinflation.
- The 2025 budget targets ambitious inflation goals amid economic uncertainty and market disparities.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP cut rates to 5.25%, maintaining a cautious approach amid inflation stabilisation and global risks.
- Real interest rates remain restrictive, despite easing, as inflation expectations align with the target.
- The narrowing rate differential with the Fed poses currency risk, but pressures are likely temporary.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s manufacturing struggles continue, as global demand and the outlook weaken.
- Political risk and judicial reforms spark market fears, threatening the industrial and capex recovery.
- Nearshoring benefits are delayed, and tight financial conditions and uncertainty weigh on manufacturing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Headwinds amid reform uncertainty
- Colombia — Signs of recovery despite many headwinds
- Peru — Resilient despite global noise
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation remains contained, but fiscal uncertainty and BRL depreciation are worrying.
- Food and energy prices provide temporary relief amid rising inflation expectations and policy noise.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen sharply, strengthening the case for accelerated rate cuts from BanRep.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Mexico moderated in August, but political risk and the MXN raise concerns.
- AMLO’s populist plans threaten to overshadow the improving inflation outlook via an MXN sell-off.
- The labour market is weakening, as formal job growth slows and informal employment dominates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCCh resumed its easing, reflecting weaker growth and stable inflation expectations.
- The Bank signalled a faster path to neutral, in Q2 2025, acknowledging weaker domestic demand.
- We expect further rate cuts, to 5% by late Q4 and 4% by Q2 2025, but uncertainty is elevated.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico and Chile face rising inflation, amid global turmoil and economic uncertainty.
- Banxico and the BCCh will struggle to balance headline inflation control with economic growth needs.
- Adverse weather and global issues complicate the inflation outlook, but Fed easing will bring relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Challenges amidst easing external woes
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by yen carry trade and global noise
- Chilean Peso — Resilient despite copper price declines
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Central banks in Mexico and Peru navigate turbulent markets ahead of critical monetary policy meetings.
- Global economic uncertainty forces policymakers to reassess monetary strategies amid financial volatility.
- Policy decisions will increasingly hinge on the actions of the US Fed and geopolitical dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Weak economic activity in Chile signals a need for further interest rate cuts, despite headwinds.
- Confidence declines sharply, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty and higher electricity tariffs.
- Peru maintains benign inflation, allowing the BCRP to consider future rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil, Colombia, and Chile’s central banks diverge in their monetary policy decisions, but caution prevails.
- BCB maintains Selic rate at 10.50%, emphasizing vigilance given inflation pressures and fiscal risk.
- BanRep cuts rate to 10.75%, Chile holds at 5.75% amid mixed economic signals and inflation threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economic growth slowed in H1; nearshoring and public spending saved the day.
- Economic activity is facing challenges amid high political uncertainty and elevated interest rates.
- Weak external conditions and policy risk add to the difficult environment over the coming quarters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s current account deficit is widening, driven by both domestic factors and global headwinds.
- Mexico’s trade balance has deteriorated, hit by fewer oil exports and ongoing manufacturing weakness.
- Both nations must address economic uncertainties; tight financial conditions will keep a lid on imports.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 inflation overshot expectations, driven by transportation and housing costs.
- Brazil’s currency sell-off increases inflation risks, complicating COPOM’s monetary policy decisions.
- Mexico’s headline inflation jumped in mid-July, due largely to a non-core inflation spike; core is subdued.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
