Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
- Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
- The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.
- Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
- Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
- Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious
- Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
- Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
- Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.
- Core inflation in Mexico remains stubborn near 4%, prompting Banxico to add a hawkish tilt to its tone.
- GDP growth is weakening as industry shrinks and consumption stagnates amid tighter credit conditions.
- Further rate cuts will hinge on stable inflation, fiscal prudence and limited trade disruption.
- The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
- Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
- …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.
- Brazilian Real — Slips modestly on global headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
- Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution
- Brazil’s industrial output shrank again, highlighting persistent weakness across key sectors.
- The labour market—the economy’s last major support pillar—is softening amid tariff shocks and high rates.
- We expect the COPOM to hold rates at 15% today, but easing signals are likely as disinflation gains traction.
- High inflation and wage pressures reinforce BanRep’s cautious policy normalisation stance.
- The fiscal strategy has shifted towards revenue measures, as structural rigidities limit spending cuts.
- Chile’s broad-based rebound in September confirms domestic demand strength and easing mining issues.
- BCCh’s cautious pause reflects sticky core inflation, fragile job data and sensitivity to election-driven noise.
- …Disinflation, a stable CLP and lower energy tariffs will justify a 25bp cut in December.
- Mexico’s GDP shrank in Q3 as industry weakened further and services plateaued; Q4 will be better.
- The job market is softening in Mexico as weak growth and investment weigh on employment creation.
- Brazil’s unemployment rate remains close to lows, but beneath the surface it is gradually cooling…
- …This resilience masks weakening fundamentals as high real rates and fading fiscal buffers bite.
- October’s IPCA-15 shows headline inflation is back below 5% in Brazil, amid weaker demand…
- …A resilient BRL and falling fuel costs strengthen the case for a cautious BCB rate cut.
- Mr. Milei’s legislative win boosts Argentinian assets, limits governability risk and opens door to reform.
- Mr. Kast has steady support in Chile, but fragmented politics and social tensions cloud reform prospects.
- Macro fundamentals remain sound, though capex weakness limits near-term growth momentum.
- Fiscal credibility and governance will determine the durability of Chile’s post-election market stability.
- Industry in Mexico remains in contraction, with services sustaining limited but consistent growth.
- Easing headline inflation gives Banxico room to make cautious, data-driven policy rate cuts.
- Fiscal support and lower rates will help cushion growth, but structural headwinds persist into 2026.
- President Petro’s confrontation with Washington risks undoing decades of cooperation and stability.
- Economic activity is weakening as the construction and service sectors lose growth momentum.
- Fiscal pressures, policy uncertainty and political noise threaten the fragile recovery.
- Argentina has secured US support as elections near, but political uncertainty is keeping markets on edge.
- The swap deal buys time, yet weak demand and fiscal pressures are weighing on the outlook.
- Peru’s economy is maintaining solid growth despite political instability and pre-election uncertainty.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell, as mining and construction wiped out fragile manufacturing gains.
- The job market is cooling and falling remittances are squeezing incomes, hurting private consumption.
- Fiscal stimulus and Banxico rate cuts will cushion growth, but recovery prospects remain fragile.
- August’s modest IBC-BR rebound masks persistent weakness across Brazil’s key sectors.
- Retail and services show a tentative stabilisation, but tight credit and high rates continue to hurt demand.
- Fiscal transfers offer temporary support, but restrictive policy will keep growth subdued in 2026.
- Brazil — President Lula gains ground amid tensions
- Mexico — Trade, security and stability
- Chile — Conservatives hold ground prior to crucial vote
- Core inflation remains elevated in Colombia, highlighting persistent demand across key sectors.
- BanRep is likely to hold rates as minimum-wage risks and inflation expectations challenge policy flexibility.
- Temporary price pressures lifted September inflation in Chile, but disinflation is likely to resume in Q4.
- Peru’s Congress has impeached President Boluarte, amid surging crime and collapsing support.
- Interim President Jerí assumes office with a limited mandate; restoring confidence will be a challenge.
- Peru’s economy is holding firm despite the saga, supported by strong institutions and fundamentals.
