9 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation softens slightly in Colombia, but risks remain tilted upwards

• Food deflation softened Colombia’s inflation, but sticky services and indexation are delaying disinflation.
• A widening external deficit and volatile financing flows underscore Colombia’s rising vulnerabilities.
• Minimum-wage pressures and firm domestic demand reinforce BanRep’s high-for-longer policy stance.

8 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's inflation holds steady, firming the case for further BCCh rate cuts

• Contained inflation with a broad-based moderation allows BCCh to resume gradual easing soon…
• …CLP strength, lower food and oil prices, and relatively soft demand support a benign disinflation outlook.
• Mexico’s ambitious wage push will strain productivity, intensify inflation risks, and test Banxico.

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

3 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial weakness deepens, strengthening case for BCB easing

• Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
• …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
• Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.

2 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile enters Q4 with firmer growth; political clarity will boost confidence

• The mining rebound and resilient domestic demand
  lift activity in Chile; the near-term outlook is benign…
• …Improving sentiment and rising capex point to firmer
  momentum heading into early 2026.
• Political clarity and expectations of fiscal discipline
  under a Kast presidency reinforce investor confidence.

1 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation eases further; Copom likely to cut rates in January

• Disinflation in Brazil is broadening across goods and services, as supply conditions remain favourable.
• A strong BRL, cooling demand, and easing core pressures will push headline inflation lower in Q1.
• Copom signals patience but improving data support the case for a cautious rate-cutting cycle soon.

26 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation and retail data support Banxico's cautious policy

• Steady core inflation and temporary non-core shocks reinforce Banxico’s 
  data-dependent easing.
• Retail sales resilience contrasts with softer sentiment, indicating consumption held up by easing inflation.
• Mexico’s recovery prospects hinge on lower rates, stable external conditions and subdued inflation.

25 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's overheating economy tests BanRep's inflation resolve

• Robust domestic demand and fiscal expansion in Colombia are pushing economic activity above trend.
• Sticky services inflation and rising wage pressures are delaying a return to BanRep’s target.
• High real rates lend credibility, but fiscal strain and election dynamics keep policy firmly on hold.

24 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mexico's recovery stalls as technical recession looms in H2

• Mexico’s Q3 GDP contraction confirms momentum has stalled, with a base-effect-driven recession likely.
• Industrial weakness, soft job markets and fading public investment continue to weigh on activity.
• Lower interest rates and easing inflation will support a mild 2026 upturn, contingent on trade clarity.

20 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Political noise and policy risks mount across the region

• Brazil — Politics entering a noisy phase
• Mexico — Security tensions and USMCA risks
• Colombia —  Risks rising ahead of 2026 election

19 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile facing decisive run-off after fragmented first round boosts right

• Chile’s election showed right-leaning voters rallying behind Kast, giving him an advantage in the run-off…
• …While the left will be limited by its narrow base, struggling to broaden support beyond core voters.
• Q3 GDP suffered a small fall as mining disruption offset solid growth across key non-mining sectors.

18 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economy slowing rapidly in Q3; Chile's first round fragmented

• Brazil’s IBC-BR signals a tightening-driven slowdown, hitting industry & services; agriculture eases the pain.
• Chile’s polarised first-round election results reshape political alliances, setting the stage for the run-off.
• Peru’s BCRP held rates at 4.25%, as soft inflation and resilient activity encounter a cautious global backdrop.

17 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Colombia's inflation outlook is deteriorating; BanRep cautious

• Colombia’s sticky services inflation, indexation pressures and wage risks limit BanRep’s options.
• The resilient domestic demand and job market are sustaining growth despite fragile external conditions.
• Fiscal uncertainty, political noise and a widening trade deficit challenge BanRep’s cautious stance into 2026.

14 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's disinflation firms as activity softens; COPOM signals patience

• Inflation in Brazil fell markedly in October, driven by a stronger BRL and softer domestic demand.
• Services are the main growth anchor, while retail sales have weakened due to tight credit and uncertainty.
• The hawkish hold from the COPOM prepares markets for gradual 2026 rate cuts amid ongoing risks.

13 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Excellent recent performance, and Q1 outlook is relatively benign

• Brazil — Rally extends as confidence builds
• Argentina — Soars on election relief, but risks ahead
• Colombia — Outlook still bright but cautious

12 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Broad-based disinflation in Chile; fiscal risks shaping 2026 outlook

• Flat CPI in Chile in October confirms easing inflation momentum, allowing gradual BCCh rate cuts ahead.
• Robust trade and capex offset softer consumption, maintaining Chile’s balanced growth in Q4 and Q1.
• Fiscal fragility remains a key medium-term issue, demanding renewed consolidation efforts.

10 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Banxico cautious as core inflation stickiness curbs easing prospects

• Core inflation in Mexico remains stubborn near 4%, prompting Banxico to add a hawkish tilt to its tone.
• GDP growth is weakening as industry shrinks and consumption stagnates amid tighter credit conditions.
• Further rate cuts will hinge on stable inflation, fiscal prudence and limited trade disruption.

7 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BCB stands pat, showing caution on inflation; Banxico cuts, as expected

• The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
• Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
• …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.

6 November 2025 LatAm Monitor Mixed performance with Andean currencies appreciating despite political noise

• Brazilian Real —  Slips modestly on global headwinds
• Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
• Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution