Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor

11 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Recovery prospects amid economic challenges and policy shifts

  • Brazil — Positive outlook amid improving conditions
  • Mexico — Navigating turbulence
  • Colombia — Reforms, challenges and signs of recovery

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico and Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects

  • Mexico’s core inflation slows, hinting at rates cuts, despite weather-related pressures.
  • Colombia’s core inflation continues to ease, paving the way for BanRep rate cuts…
  • …but fiscal concerns and external challenges will likely limit the acceleration of the rate-cutting pace.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Chile's inflation undershot in June; BCCh to continue cautious rate cuts

  • Inflation undershot expectations in June, which likely will allow the central bank to cut rates further.
  • Risks remain, though; electricity tariffs are set to rise, but soft domestic demand will help to ease the hit.
  • Reduced pension-system uncertainty and benign global conditions will allow further rate normalisation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act

  • Brazil’s industrial sector is struggling, as the labour market continues to defy expectations.
  • The COPOM faces tough decisions amid rising inflation and political pressure from President Lula.
  • Fiscal concerns are mounting as the budget deficit is deepening, complicating monetary policy.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

3 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Chile's economy struggling as domestic demand falters

  • Chile’s economy is struggling with weak domestic demand, despite a resilient labour market.
  • Activity likely will gather speed in H2, thanks to lower interest rates, but downside threats remain.
  • Peru’s headline inflation picture looks benign, but core remains sticky; BCRP faces policy challenges.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia's BanRep cuts rates and maintains cautious stance

  • BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
  • We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
  • The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 July 2024 LatAm Monitor Banxico holds rates steady but signals potential for future cuts

  • Banxico held rates at 11% amid the MXN sell-off and rising inflation but the split vote signals a dovish shift.
  • Policymakers hinted at future easing, as the economy weakens and inflation falls.
  • The resilient labour market could face headwinds if economic weakness persists.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

28 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation eases, but COPOM remains cautious amid uncertainty

  • Brazil’s inflation remains under control in June, but the COPOM is still cautious given the uncertainty.
  • Argentina’s GDP plunged in Q1 amid Mr. Milei’s structural adjustments to bring the economy back on track.
  • His government faces economic challenges despite high approval and efforts to curb inflation.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

26 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia's ISE ticks up, but too early for a protracted recovery bet

  • Colombia’s economic activity rebounded in April, but growth momentum likely will be sluggish in H2.
  • Challenges persist amid political and policy uncertainty—hindering investment—and fiscal pressures.
  • The fiscal backdrop, as outlined in the MTFF, presents a complex picture of challenges and commitments.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico's inflation uptick in June will force Banxico to stay put this week

  • Mexico’s inflation uptick in June signals caution from Banxico; the next rate cut is likely delayed to August.
  • Rising non-core inflation and MXN volatility challenge Banxico’s monetary policy stance.
  • Brazil’s foreign investment inflows show resilience despite economic challenges.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

24 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexican economy falters amid challenges and uncertainty

  • Mexico’s economy struggled in April amid headwinds; high rates and political uncertainty are threats.
  • Ms. Sheinbaum’s cabinet choices indicate a balance between ideological allies and technocratic expertise.
  • Concerns about power concentration are valid, but Ms. Sheinbaum is not merely AMLO’s puppet.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

21 June 2024 LatAm Monitor BCB and BCCh reinforce their cautious monetary policy stance

  • Brazil’s COPOM delivered a hawkish hold, prioritising anchoring inflation, and restoring credibility.
  • Chile’s central bank continued gradual rate cuts amid inflation concerns and improving economic activity.
  • Both Banks will face an improved global scenario by year-end, broadening their policy manoeuvrability.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

20 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Reform, turmoil, and resilience tested

  • Brazil — Lula’s political skills put to the test
  • Mexico — Sheinbaum’s judicial reform rattles markets
  • Argentina — Milei’s uphill battle, despite approval

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

18 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds

  • Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
  • The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
  • Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

17 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Peru's central bank defies expectations, keeping rates on hold

  • The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
  • Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
  • Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

14 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Mr. Milei's turbulent first six months; Brazil's retail sales remain resilient

  • A whirlwind start for President Milei in Argentina; reforms, protests, economic turmoil…and disinflation.
  • The Senate has narrowly approved a controversial bill giving him a badly needed first legislative victory.
  • Brazil’s retail sales rise in April but undershoot expectations; the medium-term outlook is worsening.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Global and domestic political uncertainty continue to drive markets

  • Brazil — Extending losses amid uncertainty
  • Mexico — Increased political risk rattling markets
  • Colombia — Struggling amid fiscal uncertainty

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

12 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation battle complicated by floods and fiscal pressures

  • Brazil faces an uphill inflation battle amid multiple headwinds, despite relatively subdued core pressures.
  • The floods, BRL sell-off and fiscal woes have intensified the COPOM’s inflation challenges.
  • Mexico’s industry is struggling due to a manufacturing slump, while construction remains resilient.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's external accounts showing resilience amid global headwinds

  • Brazil’s trade surplus is holding steady, despite exports slowing amid challenging conditions…
  • …Imports are showing signs of recovery, but tight financial conditions are limiting growth.
  • Colombia’s current account deficit has shrunk, despite weak domestic demand and ongoing challenges.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Inflation dynamics in Mexico-Chile: easing pressures and upside risks

  • Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
  • Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
  • Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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