Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- Brazil — Positive outlook amid improving conditions
- Mexico — Navigating turbulence
- Colombia — Reforms, challenges and signs of recovery
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s core inflation slows, hinting at rates cuts, despite weather-related pressures.
- Colombia’s core inflation continues to ease, paving the way for BanRep rate cuts…
- …but fiscal concerns and external challenges will likely limit the acceleration of the rate-cutting pace.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation undershot expectations in June, which likely will allow the central bank to cut rates further.
- Risks remain, though; electricity tariffs are set to rise, but soft domestic demand will help to ease the hit.
- Reduced pension-system uncertainty and benign global conditions will allow further rate normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector is struggling, as the labour market continues to defy expectations.
- The COPOM faces tough decisions amid rising inflation and political pressure from President Lula.
- Fiscal concerns are mounting as the budget deficit is deepening, complicating monetary policy.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economy is struggling with weak domestic demand, despite a resilient labour market.
- Activity likely will gather speed in H2, thanks to lower interest rates, but downside threats remain.
- Peru’s headline inflation picture looks benign, but core remains sticky; BCRP faces policy challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BanRep has cut rates in a split decision, balancing inflation concerns with growth expectations.
- We expect further rate cuts in H2, assuming stable policy/political risk and benign external conditions.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weakening key sectors indicate challenges ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico held rates at 11% amid the MXN sell-off and rising inflation but the split vote signals a dovish shift.
- Policymakers hinted at future easing, as the economy weakens and inflation falls.
- The resilient labour market could face headwinds if economic weakness persists.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation remains under control in June, but the COPOM is still cautious given the uncertainty.
- Argentina’s GDP plunged in Q1 amid Mr. Milei’s structural adjustments to bring the economy back on track.
- His government faces economic challenges despite high approval and efforts to curb inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economic activity rebounded in April, but growth momentum likely will be sluggish in H2.
- Challenges persist amid political and policy uncertainty—hindering investment—and fiscal pressures.
- The fiscal backdrop, as outlined in the MTFF, presents a complex picture of challenges and commitments.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s inflation uptick in June signals caution from Banxico; the next rate cut is likely delayed to August.
- Rising non-core inflation and MXN volatility challenge Banxico’s monetary policy stance.
- Brazil’s foreign investment inflows show resilience despite economic challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy struggled in April amid headwinds; high rates and political uncertainty are threats.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s cabinet choices indicate a balance between ideological allies and technocratic expertise.
- Concerns about power concentration are valid, but Ms. Sheinbaum is not merely AMLO’s puppet.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM delivered a hawkish hold, prioritising anchoring inflation, and restoring credibility.
- Chile’s central bank continued gradual rate cuts amid inflation concerns and improving economic activity.
- Both Banks will face an improved global scenario by year-end, broadening their policy manoeuvrability.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula’s political skills put to the test
- Mexico — Sheinbaum’s judicial reform rattles markets
- Argentina — Milei’s uphill battle, despite approval
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic activity stalled in April, and down-side risks are intensifying, due mainly to the floods.
- The COPOM is likely to pause its easing this week, amid inflation concerns and despite faltering growth.
- Peru’s economy is rebounding in Q2, boosted by primary sectors, and the outlook remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
- Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
- Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A whirlwind start for President Milei in Argentina; reforms, protests, economic turmoil…and disinflation.
- The Senate has narrowly approved a controversial bill giving him a badly needed first legislative victory.
- Brazil’s retail sales rise in April but undershoot expectations; the medium-term outlook is worsening.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Extending losses amid uncertainty
- Mexico — Increased political risk rattling markets
- Colombia — Struggling amid fiscal uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil faces an uphill inflation battle amid multiple headwinds, despite relatively subdued core pressures.
- The floods, BRL sell-off and fiscal woes have intensified the COPOM’s inflation challenges.
- Mexico’s industry is struggling due to a manufacturing slump, while construction remains resilient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s trade surplus is holding steady, despite exports slowing amid challenging conditions…
- …Imports are showing signs of recovery, but tight financial conditions are limiting growth.
- Colombia’s current account deficit has shrunk, despite weak domestic demand and ongoing challenges.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
- Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
- Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
