Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- Brazilian Real — Fundamentals supportive
- Colombian Peso — Shielded by high carry
- Chilean Peso — Lower carry still the key drag
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector is strengthening, but the devil is in the detail; bold rate cuts are needed.
- The external balance improved substantially last year as exports were resilient and imports struggled.
- The minutes of the last policy meeting point to a cruising speed of 50bp rate cuts in the near term.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s BCCh cut the policy rate by 100bp to 7.25%, with one member voting for a bigger reduction.
- The Board increased the pace of easing as inflation is falling rapidly and the economy is struggling.
- The worst for the economy is over, but temporary shocks—including bad weather—remain drags.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BanRep delivered a cautious rate cut, as inflation risks remain tilted to the upside…
- …But there was unanimity among the Board on the need for further policy normalisation.
- We still think bolder rate cuts are coming, as inflation will start to fall rapidly and activity will falter.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Rapid disinflation is allowing LatAm central banks to normalise monetary policy, but speeds differ.
- Brazil’s COPOM cut rates at a cautious 50bp pace, but we still see room for bolder cuts if the Fed blinks.
- The unemployment rate ended Q4 on a decent footing, but we see a slowdown in job creation in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Real GDP growth in Mexico surprised to the down-side in Q4; tighter financial conditions are hurting.
- will be difficult in H1, with less support from the global economy and Banxico still cautious.
- Chile’s labour market performed well in December; further interest rate cuts will support the upturn.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In December, Mexico saw its biggest trade surplus since the pandemic, and the oil trade deficit stabilised.
- Auto exports improved at the margin in Q4, but down- side risks remain, due to sluggish external conditions.
- Will the strength of the labour market in 2023 continue over the coming quarters?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thursday’s triple threat of policy meetings in Brazil, Chile and Colombia is the main event this week.
- Will the rapid disinflation in Brazil allow the COPOM to accelerate the pace of easing this week?
- Similarly, in the Andes, policymakers will increase the magnitude of rate cuts, also thanks to rapid disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Economic activity in Mexico is struggling, particularly manufacturing and key services, as demand eases.
- The ongoing weakness of global conditions and high real interest rates will constrain growth during H1.
- Bad weather has foiled a promising disinflation story, though core pressures continue to ease rapidly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The IBC-BR for November shows Brazil’s economy is stagnating, despite rapidly falling inflation.
- Tight financial conditions will continue to keep a lid on activity, offsetting the boost from fiscal support.
- Business surveys are improving, signalling better momentum in Q2, if the COPOM acts boldly.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy performed relatively well in November, and the outlook is improving; just.
- S&P lowered the country’s outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ due to the sluggish economic growth.
- A rating downgrade will likely be avoided, but President Petro’s policy missteps are a real threat.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Activity in Mexico’s retail sector is slowing, despite falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market…
- …But rising real interest rates and softening remittances from abroad will constrain the sector.
- Consumers will likely become more cautious until key domestic and external threats disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Brazil grew strongly in November, thanks mainly to the Black Friday boost.
- Lower inflation and a resilient labour market are also offsetting the drag from rising real interest rates.
- Economic activity was resilient in Q4, but downside forces will prevent a rapid upturn any time soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Presidential election hotting up
- Argentina — Pragmatic chainsaw switched on
- Chile — Pension reform continues to advance in Congress
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Milei has been busy in his first month in charge of Argentina’s economy, but it hasn’t been easy.
- Inflation turned out a bit better than expected, at a still-ugly 211%, the highest since 1990.
- The IMF backed Milei’s economic plan, approving the next disbursement under the current deal.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation continues in Peru, as temporary shocks fade and domestic demand remains sluggish.
- We look for the BCRP to reduce rates to about 5% by the end of H1 2024...
- ...But risks to the inflation outlook have increased at the margin in recent days, particularly geopolitics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s industry is weakening, and risks are tilted to the downside as US manufacturing struggles.
- Construction activity is slowing, but this follows an impressive and unsustainable H1 2023.
- Geopolitical threats, alongside high interest rates and the US and Mexican elections, are the key risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation pressures in Brazil remained under control at the end of 2023, as domestic demand eased.
- Favourable inertia effects and the BRL’s performance in recent quarters will push inflation down in H1.
- Further good news on the inflation story in Colombia; the COP’s rebound last year will be a drag in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — At an all-time high, and 2024 looks solid
- Mexico — Improving, but elections could bring noise
- Chile — Rally to continue after political risk eases
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico edged up in December, chiefly due to non-core pressures, as bad weather hit.
- Core inflation continues to fall, at the margin, thanks to the lagged effect of the MXN rebound last year.
- We expect Banxico to cut rates next month, but poor weather conditions could delay action to March.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
