Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor
- Brazil’s inflation remains contained, but fiscal uncertainty and BRL depreciation are worrying.
- Food and energy prices provide temporary relief amid rising inflation expectations and policy noise.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen sharply, strengthening the case for accelerated rate cuts from BanRep.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline inflation in Mexico moderated in August, but political risk and the MXN raise concerns.
- AMLO’s populist plans threaten to overshadow the improving inflation outlook via an MXN sell-off.
- The labour market is weakening, as formal job growth slows and informal employment dominates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCCh resumed its easing, reflecting weaker growth and stable inflation expectations.
- The Bank signalled a faster path to neutral, in Q2 2025, acknowledging weaker domestic demand.
- We expect further rate cuts, to 5% by late Q4 and 4% by Q2 2025, but uncertainty is elevated.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico and Chile face rising inflation, amid global turmoil and economic uncertainty.
- Banxico and the BCCh will struggle to balance headline inflation control with economic growth needs.
- Adverse weather and global issues complicate the inflation outlook, but Fed easing will bring relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Challenges amidst easing external woes
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by yen carry trade and global noise
- Chilean Peso — Resilient despite copper price declines
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Central banks in Mexico and Peru navigate turbulent markets ahead of critical monetary policy meetings.
- Global economic uncertainty forces policymakers to reassess monetary strategies amid financial volatility.
- Policy decisions will increasingly hinge on the actions of the US Fed and geopolitical dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Weak economic activity in Chile signals a need for further interest rate cuts, despite headwinds.
- Confidence declines sharply, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty and higher electricity tariffs.
- Peru maintains benign inflation, allowing the BCRP to consider future rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil, Colombia, and Chile’s central banks diverge in their monetary policy decisions, but caution prevails.
- BCB maintains Selic rate at 10.50%, emphasizing vigilance given inflation pressures and fiscal risk.
- BanRep cuts rate to 10.75%, Chile holds at 5.75% amid mixed economic signals and inflation threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM ECONOMIES SHOWING RESILIENCE...
- ...AMID POLICY CHALLENGES AND GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economic growth slowed in H1; nearshoring and public spending saved the day.
- Economic activity is facing challenges amid high political uncertainty and elevated interest rates.
- Weak external conditions and policy risk add to the difficult environment over the coming quarters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s current account deficit is widening, driven by both domestic factors and global headwinds.
- Mexico’s trade balance has deteriorated, hit by fewer oil exports and ongoing manufacturing weakness.
- Both nations must address economic uncertainties; tight financial conditions will keep a lid on imports.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 inflation overshot expectations, driven by transportation and housing costs.
- Brazil’s currency sell-off increases inflation risks, complicating COPOM’s monetary policy decisions.
- Mexico’s headline inflation jumped in mid-July, due largely to a non-core inflation spike; core is subdued.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Latin American trade balances have improved amid currency weakness and commodity-price rebounds.
- Brazil, Chile, Peru and Argentina are posting trade surpluses; deficits narrow in Colombia and Mexico.
- Regional economic stabilisation efforts are leading to results in external trade accounts, but risks remain.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Mexican economy sent positive signals in May amid domestic political uncertainty and global risk.
- The service and construction sectors drove May’s growth; retail sales reflect an economic deterioration.
- Election-linked fiscal stimulus will wane; high rates and political risk are clouding the economic outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Latin American recovery faces headwinds as the US presidential election looms large on the horizon.
- Mr. Trump’s potential return to power threatens to disrupt LatAm economies and trade relations.
- Mexico is the most directly exposed, and Brazil the least vulnerable, to a potential Trump presidency
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Senate grapples with tax-break dilemma
- Mexico — President-elect appoints her cabinet
- Chile — Boric navigates pension and energy reforms
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s manufacturing sector is struggling, while Peru’s economy is showing outstanding resilience.
- High interest rates and inflation dampen Colombia’s growth; domestic demand is improving in Peru.
- Political uncertainty is hindering Colombia’s recovery; Peru’s outlook is brightening, despite politics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economy continues to show resilience in Q2, supported by a strong labour market.
- The outlook for H2 is positive, despite challenges, but tight financial conditions will hurt in 2025.
- Argentina’s inflation continues to undershoot, bolstering confidence in Milei’s stabilisation plan.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s underlying inflation picture remains in check, but political and economic risks are intensifying.
- BCB faces a complex scenario as the labour market and private consumption appear resilient, for now.
- Retail sales surged in May despite economic headwinds, beating expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Positive outlook amid improving conditions
- Mexico — Navigating turbulence
- Colombia — Reforms, challenges and signs of recovery
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America