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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Chartbook Daily Monitor Datanotes

12 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation battle complicated by floods and fiscal pressures

  • Brazil faces an uphill inflation battle amid multiple headwinds, despite relatively subdued core pressures.
  • The floods, BRL sell-off and fiscal woes have intensified the COPOM’s inflation challenges.
  • Mexico’s industry is struggling due to a manufacturing slump, while construction remains resilient.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

11 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's external accounts showing resilience amid global headwinds

  • Brazil’s trade surplus is holding steady, despite exports slowing amid challenging conditions…
  • …Imports are showing signs of recovery, but tight financial conditions are limiting growth.
  • Colombia’s current account deficit has shrunk, despite weak domestic demand and ongoing challenges.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Chile, May, 2024

  • In one line: Upside pressures will keep policymakers on the alert.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, May, 2024

  • In one line: Modest core pressures point to further monetary easing this month.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, April, 2024

  • In one line: A mixed performance on a sequential basis, but downside risk
    prevailing.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 June 2024 LatAm Monitor MXN steadies, but risks remain; Brazil's industry still under strain

  • The MXN has steadied after the election shock, but populist reform fears linger.
  • A mixed start for Brazilian industry in Q2, but the floods in the south have dented the outlook.
  • The rebound will resume in H2 but faces headwinds from still-tight financial conditions and weak demand.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

6 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Political noise and the Fed remain the key drivers

  • Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
  • Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
  • Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: GDP, First Quarter, Brazil, 2024

  • In one line: A solid Q1, but conditions have worsened recently.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

5 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1

  • Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
  • High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
  • Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 June 2024 LatAm Monitor Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital

  • Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
  • Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
  • The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

May 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...

  • ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Chile, April

  • In one line: Struggling on a sequential basis, despite the solid headline numbers.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

31 May 2024 LatAm Monitor Mexico's pivotal elections; market reactions, and policy uncertainty

  • Mexico is bracing for historic elections, as Claudia Sheinbaum—AMLO’s protégée—eyes the presidency.
  • Financial markets anticipate a Sheinbaum victory, but uncertainties linger and a surprise could happen.
  • Legislative outcomes will shape Mexico’s economic outlook amid concerns over AMLO’s interventionism.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

29 May 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's improving inflation picture will allow a rate cut in June, but...

  • Brazil’s May inflation data support a 25bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on June 19, but risks linger…
  • …The floods in the south of the country have had a limited impact so far, but the hit will be felt soon.
  • Inflation expectations are on the rise; a further deterioration would limit the central bank’s options.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

24 May 2024 LatAm Monitor Banxico navigates sticky headline inflation amid slowing growth

  • Mexico’s Q1 GDP upward revision masks the underlying economic slowdown; rate cuts are badly needed.
  • Pre-election spending will fuel short-term growth, despite rising public debt and economic challenges.
  • Core inflation is easing in May, allowing a still-hawkish Banxico to consider rate cuts next month.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

22 May 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Q1 economic rebound masks underlying weaknesses

  • Mixed signals in Colombia’s Q1 GDP, as strong consumption clashes with weak investment.
  • Policy uncertainty under President Petro is stifling the investment recovery; the outlook remains bleak.
  • The more than 30% collapse in capex since Petro took office highlights the hit, amid high interest rates.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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