Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor
- Banxico’s policy surprise reflects weaker activity, with the inflation spike considered temporary.
- External shocks from oil and tighter financial conditions raise upside risks and constrain easing.
- Disinflation is becoming more uneven; Banxico must balance supporting growth against inflation risk.
- In one line: Disinflation remains intact, but the oil shock has materially increased upside risk.
- In one line: Rates on hold, policy turns cautious after Middle East oil shock.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the upside, while activity weakened sharply at the start of the year.
- Consumption in Colombia remains strong, but weak capex undermines medium-term growth prospects.
- Tight financial conditions and fiscal consolidation will weigh on demand, exposing fragile growth dynamics.
- Higher oil prices offer support, but inflation pressures and policy tightening limit upside for activity.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
- In one line: Core pressures pushed inflation up slightly and the outlook is worsening.
- In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, reinforcing Chile’s disinflation trend.
- In one line: Output rebounded in January, but the broader industrial trend remains fragile.
- Brazil’s jobless rate remains at historic lows, indicating labour demand is still far above sustainable levels.
- Real wage growth above 5% keeps services inflation sticky and limits room for rapid easing.
- Rising oil prices from Middle East tensions add upside inflation risk, impeding the COPOM’s policy path.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- In one line: Services rebounded, partly offsetting renewed weakness in manufacturing.
LATAM ACTIVITY STABILISES AS POLICY PATHS DIVERGE
- DISINFLATION PROVES UNEVEN, WHILE POLITICAL RISK INTENSIFIES
- In one line: Activity softened at the start of the year.
- In one line: Seasonal firmness, but disinflation remains intact.
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 upside surprise reflects education and transport seasonality, not renewed pressures.
- Core trends have stabilised near target, reinforcing scope for gradual COPOM easing from this month.
- Fiscal uncertainty clouds the rate-cutting pace despite soft activity, steady prices and BRL rebound.
- An agriculture-led rebound lifted Argentina’s Q4 growth, yet job gains remain limited and uneven.
- Inflation is picking up at the margin, testing the durability of the success seen in recent quarters.
- Fiscal surpluses anchor credibility, but market access hinges on sustained discipline and reform.
- In one line: Core pressures keep inflation near 4%, limiting Banxico’s room to ease.
- Food volatility lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying dynamics remain the policy constraint.
- Core inflation is moderating slightly, yet stickiness in services is keeping Banxico cautious about easing.
- Gradual disinflation supports rate cuts in Q2, though risks remain tilted modestly upwards.
- Mexico’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, driven by strength in services, and easing inflation.
- Retail sales and leading indicators improved, but job-market cooling tempers domestic-demand outlook.
- Banxico is pausing easing, as trade risk, fiscal tightening and sticky core inflation constrain the outlook.
