- Banxico extends easing with another 50bp cut, citing disinflation and weakening economic activity.
- Policymakers are likely to maintain their pace near term, before gradually shifting to smaller rate cuts.
- US auto tariffs threaten Mexico’s exports, manufacturing supply chains and capex outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
CENTRAL BANKS FACE A COMPLEX EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT…
- …VIGILANCE AND POLICY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s economy enjoyed a solid end to 2024, and the outlook remains benign, though not risk-free.
- Growth prospects are driven by exports, capex, structural improvements in key sectors, and disinflation.
- Mr. Milei will have to balance fiscal discipline with IMF negotiations and political resistance to reforms.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Another bold rate hike, but the magnitude of tightening will be reduced in May.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Ending 2024 on a strong note, but risks loom for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Better, but the overall picture is still one of subpar growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Tight financial conditions remain a drag at the core level.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold amid rising global uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s retail sector is struggling as spending weakens amid uncertainty and higher interest rates.
- The service sector is slowing; high borrowing costs and softening labour-market conditions are drags.
- The trade war forces central banks to adopt a cautious approach, delaying a faster regional economic upturn.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Industrial output slumps further; outlook remains weak.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation pressures persist despite economic activity slowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Tight financial conditions are a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core pressures subdued as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation resumes as temporary shocks subside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The US tariff delay brings temporary relief, but uncertainty looms beyond April; capex will still be hurt.
- Brazil’s real GDP slowed sharply in Q4, due to falling private consumption and softening capex.
- H1 will be better, at face value, thanks to robust agricultural output and government stimulus.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Retail sector remains strong, while industrial sector struggles in January.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s labour market remained resilient in January, at face value, but is showing some signs of cooling.
- The current account deficit increased in January, but the underlying picture remains benign.
- Foreign investment beat expectations, despite a difficult external and domestic backdrop.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
