- In one line: Resuming rate cuts but keeping a cautious bias.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
- Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
- Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Back to the target range, and the near-term outlook is benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Further interest rate cuts likely, as inflation pressures continue to ease.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial output is weak in Q1, due to tight financing conditions and despite some bright spots.
- Rising business confidence signals manufacturing will gain momentum in Q2.
- The external accounts remain robust; the 12-month trade surplus is at historic highs…will this continue?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s jobless rate continues to fall, and leading indicators point to a good performance in Q2.
- This improvement will leave the COPOM uneasy, but we believe conditions will stabilise in the near future.
- In his first 100 days in office, Milei tackled the daunting task of addressing Argentina’s problems.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The improving inflationary outlook has allowed Banxico to start an easing cycle, by 25bp to 11.00%.
- The forward guidance continues to indicate the potential for further cuts, depending on the data.
- The room for policy easing at the next meetings remains wide open, as inflation will continue to fall.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The Board exercises caution, as forward guidance is limited to one meeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to the year, but conditions will improve soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The significant reduction in LatAm’s current account deficit last year appears promising…
- …But it was primarily due to weaker domestic demand; exports showed only modest resilience.
- The deficit is likely to widen again as the economy recovers, but better global demand will offset the hit.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Overshooting expectations, once again, by far.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, but expect a further rate cut soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets by keeping rates on hold but reducing reserve requirements.
- Chile’s inflation surged in February, due to the CLP sell-off, posing challenges for the BCCh.
- Risks and uncertainty loom as the CLP faces depreciation pressures due to the unattractive carry.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Falling inflation raises expectations of an interest rate cut this month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to the year, but the outlook is improving.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s economic recovery stalled in H2, after an impressive performance in previous quarters.
- Falling private consumption, due to tight financing conditions, has put the economy under strain.
- Bold rate cuts are still needed, assuming an improvement in external conditions and a better fiscal outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy managed to muddle through in Q4, thanks to the revival in consumption and capex.
- Leading indicators point to a better H1, though the recovery will remain subpar by previous standards.
- Tight financial conditions and still-elevated political/ policy uncertainty will limit the rebound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor end to the year, but the details are less grim than the headline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
