- At last Banxico has opened the door to interest rate cuts, as early as next month.
- Headline inflation has surprised to the upside recently, but due to the volatile non-core component.
- Core disinflation is on track and economic activity is slowing rapidly; Banxico is already behind the curve.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Incompatible with prior data, but the downtrend is on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, but conditions will likely improve in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Industrial sector ends 2023 on a strong note.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BanRep delivered a cautious rate cut, as inflation risks remain tilted to the upside…
- …But there was unanimity among the Board on the need for further policy normalisation.
- We still think bolder rate cuts are coming, as inflation will start to fall rapidly and activity will falter.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor end to the quarter, highlighting the need of further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A cautious cut, but bolder action likely will come soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A 50bp rate cut, as widely expected.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A soft end to the year, and H1 looks difficult; rate cuts are needed.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation continues; more good news to come.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thursday’s triple threat of policy meetings in Brazil, Chile and Colombia is the main event this week.
- Will the rapid disinflation in Brazil allow the COPOM to accelerate the pace of easing this week?
- Similarly, in the Andes, policymakers will increase the magnitude of rate cuts, also thanks to rapid disinflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Poor economic activity and soft core inflation pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, by some way.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Struggling, despite relatively positive sectoral data in November.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Activity in Mexico’s retail sector is slowing, despite falling inflation and a still-healthy labour market…
- …But rising real interest rates and softening remittances from abroad will constrain the sector.
- Consumers will likely become more cautious until key domestic and external threats disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good report, boosted by Black Friday sales.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
