Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- Colombia’s economy faces headwinds despite the modest recovery; policy shifts muddy the outlook.
- President Petro’s reform agenda meets political resistance, again; economic stability is at risk.
- BanRep is dealing with inflation and growth worries amid government pressure for a dovish policy shift.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The COPOM has a tough rate decision amid rising inflation expectations, and elevated policy risk.
- Mixed economic data highlight resilient services growth, but the industrial recovery remains fragile.
- New BCB leadership under Gabriel Galípolo brings uncertainty to future policy and inflation-targeting.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial production declined in July following a solid H1, and the outlook is now cautious.
- A weaker trade surplus and rising import demand point to mounting external pressures.
- Chile’s inflation rose in August; food and housing prices led the increase, due to temporary shocks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s GDP surged 1.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, driven by strong industrial and service sector growth.
- Labour-market strength and government spending bolstered the economic recovery in H1…
- …But challenges loom: fiscal pressures and weakening indicators signal a potential slowdown.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Peru’s inflation is easing, as the core rate has hit BCRP’s target; it likely will continue to cut rates.- Chile’s economic activity rebounded in July, but challenges are persisting in key sectors.
- Colombia’s labour market is sending mixed signals amid an uneven economic recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s labour market showed resilience in H1, yet signs of a gradual slowdown are starting to emerge.
- Leading indicators signal the labour market is plateauing, due to tighter financial conditions.
- Industrial gains offset consumption challenges in Chile; the recovery remains sluggish.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s latest data paint a picture of a struggling economy, with risks tilted to the downside.
- We expect the BCCh to resume rate cuts to support the economic upturn, but electricity tariffs pose a risk.
- Improving external demand, rate cuts and Fed easing will support the economic recovery in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economic outlook suggests a continued shift towards monetary policy easing.
- Declining core inflation and stagnant economic activity will allow Banxico to cut rates further.
- The US Fed’s incoming easing cycle is one of the key reasons for further normalisation, but risks remain.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM is navigating inflation concerns and an economic slowdown, keeping a cautious stance.
- Inflation risks persist despite recent data, which will force the COPOM to hold rates in the near term.
- Softening economic activity, core inflation in check and the Fed’s easing will allow cuts in late Q4 or Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s BanRep cut rates by 50bp amid a modest economic recovery and further inflation risks.
- Chile’s BCCh was more cautious, keeping rates steady amid uncertainty driven by electricity tariffs.
- BanRep has signaled further rate cuts, contrasting with BCCh’s more data-dependent approach.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM ECONOMIES SHOWING RESILIENCE...
- ...AMID POLICY CHALLENGES AND GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm policymakers face complex challenges due to inflation, currency volatility and policy uncertainty.
- Brazil will likely hold rates, as the currency sell-off and fiscal concerns dampen easing expectations.
- The central banks in the Andes will continue to cut rates, on the back of stable inflation and poor growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s and Argentina’s economies are recovering, amid persistent challenges and uncertainty.
- Agriculture is driving economic growth in Colombia, but construction and commerce are struggling.
- Fiscal consolidation has improved Argentina’s balance sheet but raises concerns about social impact.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru's BCRP held rates for a second straight meeting, amid sticky core inflation, but eyes future easing.
- A mixed performance for Mexico's industrial sector: construction is solid, manufacturing is struggling.
- Banxico's minutes lean towards a rate cut in August; softening economic activity supports this view.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS RESILIENT...
- ...BUT CHALLENGES PERSIST, PARTICULARLY ON THE POLICY FRONT
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy struggled in April amid headwinds; high rates and political uncertainty are threats.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s cabinet choices indicate a balance between ideological allies and technocratic expertise.
- Concerns about power concentration are valid, but Ms. Sheinbaum is not merely AMLO’s puppet.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
- Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
- Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
- Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
- Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...
- ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Brazilian labour market’s resilience will continue to raise inflation concerns for policymakers.
- Robust economic activity in recent months likely will slow the disinflation process, but not for long.
- Downside risks persist for the economy in H2; tighter financial conditions will be the main drag, by far.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
