Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- Mexico’s economy struggled in April amid headwinds; high rates and political uncertainty are threats.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s cabinet choices indicate a balance between ideological allies and technocratic expertise.
- Concerns about power concentration are valid, but Ms. Sheinbaum is not merely AMLO’s puppet.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP left rates unchanged, defying expectations once again, as core inflation remains sticky in Peru.
- Muted inflation and soft economic activity will allow further policy normalisation in H2.
- Another boost for President Milei as inflation in Argentina slowed in May, undershooting expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico eyes further monetary easing amid subdued core inflation, but politics are now a huge threat.
- Chile’s inflation likely will resume its downtrend despite the recent uptick, thanks to the CLP rebound.
- Rising electricity tariffs, however, pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook; the BCCh is on the alert.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM RECOVERY REMAINS SUBPAR...
- ...BUT LOW INFLATION IS ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Brazilian labour market’s resilience will continue to raise inflation concerns for policymakers.
- Robust economic activity in recent months likely will slow the disinflation process, but not for long.
- Downside risks persist for the economy in H2; tighter financial conditions will be the main drag, by far.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s BCCh slowed its rate cutting pace to 50bp, citing lagged inflation pressures.
- It kept a relatively dovish tone, however, pointing to further easing in coming meetings, as FX fears ease.
- Board reaffirms data-dependent approach, highlights “clexibility” for future decisions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s real GDP rebounded in Q1, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand, but risks loom for H2.
- Fiscal challenges, a weakening external backdrop and bad weather conditions have clouded the outlook.
- COPOM minutes reinforce the hawkish stance, despite a split vote, and cite fiscal risks to inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico’s unanimous decision to keep rates on hold at 11% is due to persistent inflationary pressures.
- Upward revisions to headline and core inflation forecasts signal a more hawkish bias than expected.
- The Board is signaling the door is open for further interest rate cuts, as disinflation remains on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
LATAM CENTRAL BANKS ADOPT A MORE HAWKISH POSITION
- A CAUTIOUS FED AND STICKY SERVICES INFLATION ARE HURTING
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s disinflation remains on track, paving the way for another bold interest rate cut next month…
- …But a cautious COPOM is signaling a slower pace of easing amid the BRL sell-off, due to external risk.
- Argentina’s Milei delivers the largest fiscal surplus in three decades; his ‘shock therapy’ is paying off.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Mexico performed poorly in Q1, due mainly to tighter financial conditions.
- The bad news won’t last; the sector will be supported by falling inflation and lower rates.
- The outlook, however, will likely be tempered by remittance trends and external risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP surprised markets once again, with a 25bp rate cut to 6%; more easing is on the cards.
- Congress approved a bill allowing pension-fund withdrawals; financial markets will suffer temporarily.
- Argentina’s BRCA cut rates to 70%, as inflation pressures are easing on a month-to-month basis.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America