- In one line: Overshooting expectations, and the outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Under control, but core pressures are increasing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The modest monthly ICPA-15 gain masks underlying inflation pressures in Brazil.
- External noise and fiscal uncertainty complicate Brazil’s inflation outlook and policy decisions.
- Mexico’s economy slowed in Q4, as policy uncertainty, high real rates and global risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation in Mexico is full on track, prompting Banxico to consider accelerated rate cuts ahead.
- Core inflation pressures linger beneath weak domestic demand and subdued commodity prices.
- Colombia’s economic recovery wavers amid political noise, violence and sluggish Q4 GDP performance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal reform, and Lula’s diplomatic efforts
- Mexico — Troubles due to Mr. Trump’s re-election
- Chile — General election approaching
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Under strain, due to still-tight financial conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales plummet as Banxico signals potential bold rate cuts to ease the pain on economic activity.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s early presidency has been marked by complex reforms and a difficult political picture.
- Mr. Milei’s economic wins: a soaring trade surplus, impressive fiscal surplus, and plummeting inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Weak capex and declining private consumption raise alarms for Mexico’s near-term economic outlook.
- Potential tariff threats and trade negotiations could complicate economic ties between US and Mexico.
- Ongoing reforms and budget deficits will hinder Mexico’s economic flexibility and growth prospects.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest gain, in contrast to sectoral data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Tighter financial conditions are starting to limit economic activity in Brazil, as the IBC-BR index notes.
- We think conditions will deteriorate in the short run; this is corroborated by recent survey data.
- Peru’s recovery is continuing; it will be the top performer in LatAm in 2025, despite political issues.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal issues to remain a drag
- Mexico — A cautiously optimistic outlook
- Colombia — Monetary policy easing will be a support
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s headline disinflation paused in December, but the core improved.
- High fiscal uncertainty and a huge minimum-wage increase complicate BanRep’s rate-cutting ability.
- The government must tackle the fiscal deficit, rising debt and reform issues to allow BanRep to act freely.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BCRP cut the reference rate by 25bp to 4.75%; the easing cycle is approaching its conclusion.
- One final quarter-point rate cut will come soon, unless inflation expectations decline significantly.
- Mexico’s industrial sector faces ongoing issues; its future is dependent on potential Trump 2.0 policies.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to Q4, and the near-term outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut; approaching the end of the easing cycle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest downtick in late Q4, but the outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s headline inflation ended 2024 benignly, but the outlook is difficult, demanding urgent action.
- Fiscal solutions are needed, even if slowing activity and higher interest rates will contain inflation.
- The retail and industrial sectors face increasing hurdles, as November’s data highlight.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Under pressure due to tight financial conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
