UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Growth recovered in Q4 as Budget uncertainty passed but President Trump’s tariff hammer hangs over the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The trade balance will remain weak as energy prices remain high and uncertainty prevails.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales continue their post-Budget rebound and will drive a growth recovery in Q1
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Just the third February fall in clothes prices in 18 years dragged inflation below consensus.
- A March goods price rebound is a solid bet, so inflation will still likely surge to 3.5% in April.
- The MPC will have to stay cautious, especially as services inflation pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic items drag down inflation, underlying pressures remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices surge in January but the rush to beat higher stamp duty will fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Chancellor Reeves cut spending to maintain £9.9B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
- OBR forecast changes and spending cuts were close to expectations and modest.
- Higher borrowing and back-loaded spending cuts are slightly hawkish for the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid growth and strong price pressures means the MPC will have to be cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Better growth and rising inflation implied in the March PMI raise the risk of only one more rate cut this year.
- The PMI now agrees with other surveys that employment is stalling rather than cratering.
- The PMI is signalling a small increase in underlying services inflation pressure.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher gilt yields and weaker-than-expected taxes wipe out the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom.
- Back-loaded welfare cuts and modest reductions to planned public spending can restore headroom.
- Gilt issuance will reach a post-pandemic high of £313B in 2025/26.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Weak public finances mean spending cuts in the Spring Statement, taxes will rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Good fundamentals and bad news will continue to pull consumers’ confidence in opposing directions.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are comfortable forecasting only two more rate cuts this year after hawkish tweaks to MPC guidance.
- Employment continues to hold up relative to surveys, and pay growth is far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Ms. Reeves can rectify OBR forecast changes with only small spending cuts, affecting the MPC little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slightly more cautious committee keeps an option to skip a quarterly cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market holding up will keep the MPC gradual and careful, or maybe cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The surprisingly hawkish 8-to-1 vote to hold rates, and guidance changes, signal a more cautious MPC.
- Saying policy is not “on a pre-set path” gives the MPC the option to skip a cut at May’s meeting.
- The risk of a sharp job fall fades as the hard data hold up; pay growth remains too strong for 2% inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher deficit spending to fund increased security commitments will weigh on gilts.
- We raise our gilt yield forecasts to reflect our call that Bank Rate will settle at 4%, up from 3.75% previously.
- Fewer interest rate cuts relative to major peers will support sterling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Headline CPI inflation should hold at 3.0% in January, 0.2pp higher than rate-setters expect.
- We expect hotel and phone app prices to push up services inflation to 5.1%, matching the MPC’s call.
- February is the ‘calm before the storm’ of price resets; inflation will rise to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Bank of England is far too sanguine about elevated long-term consumer inflation expectations.
- Five-year-ahead expectations hit a new high in Q1, adjusting for a methodology break in the BoE survey.
- Public satisfaction in the BoE’s handling of inflation remains depressed, hindering its credibility.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
