UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, CAUTIOUSLY
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- All available polls suggest the Labour Party will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- Labour is proposing a credible strategy for boosting growth, but it will take time to bear fruit.
- Meanwhile, a slow-growing economy and implausible fiscal forecasts mean more borrowing and taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
STEADY GROWTH DESPITE STICKY RATES...
- ...HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY TO ACCELERATE IN H2
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Official labour-market data remain unreliable despite statisticians’ attempts to boost the sample size.
- Surveys suggest labour-market loosening has slowed as GDP growth has rebounded.
- The decline in immigration removes one factor that has helped ease the labour market since 2022.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Government borrowing forecasts are already based on GDP growth accelerating.
- The next government needs to boost growth just to fund implausibly weak Budget spending plans.
- Tax receipts will fall £30B a year below forecasts if productivity and participation match recent trends.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The MPC take another step to a cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Borrowing close to Budget forecasts, but unrealistic spending plans mean the next government will borrow more and raise taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Shoppers return in force, offering upside risks to Q2 GDP.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strengthening real wage growth and emerging hopes for the economy boost consumer confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
- The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC voted seven-to-two to keep interest rates on hold, as expected.
- The minutes of the meeting give the strong impression that the MPC is itching to cut rates.
- We stick to our call that the MPC will wait until September, but August is very much live.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices keep rising despite higher mortgage rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Persistent services inflation means more delay to rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation returned to the 2.0% target in May, for the first time since July 2021…
- …But CPI services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.4pp, more than the 0.3pp miss in April.
- So, we push back our call for the first MPC rate cut to September, from August previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- House-price inflation has slowed as rising mortgage interest rates have deterred buyers…
- …But the typical two-year mortgage rate will drop 50bp by year-end if market pricing of rate cuts is right.
- We expect house prices to regain momentum and rise 3% year-over-year in December 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The next government will inevitably raise taxes and public spending more than budgeted for currently.
- We expect that to support sterling by helping to keep market interest rates elevated.
- We forecast GBPUSD to rise to 1.33 at the end of the year, with risks to the upside.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC can take some comfort from one-year consumer inflation expectations falling back to average.
- But five-year expectations are elevated, and trust in the central bank is failing to recover as inflation falls.
- Trust in the BoE is faring worse than trust in the ECB, suggesting UK inflation will prove more persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Higher mortgage rates take a toll but estate agents expect a recovery later in the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Higher mortgage rates take a toll but estate agents expect a recovery later in the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to hold Bank Rate, after growth, wages and inflation beat its forecasts.
- Inflation persistence fading more slowly than expected means the MPC will keep its guidance unchanged.
- We think slowing wage growth and inflation will trigger a rate cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
