UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- CPI inflation likely rose to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be driven by Ofgem’s 9.5% energy utility price-cap hike and a small rise in services inflation.
- Rebounding airfares and hotel price inflation should boost services, but both are highly uncertain.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- A gently easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates only gradually.
- The unemployment rate surged in September, but that was data noise; the trend remains a slow rise.
- Wage growth is still proving stubborn, as the labour market remains tight, even if it has loosened.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- US tariffs of 10% on imports would have a trivial direct impact on UK GDP.
- But the UK would be highly exposed to global trade disruption after likely retaliation against US tariffs.
- Tariffs would be stagflationary for the UK, causing the MPC to cut interest rates more slowly.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The headline composite PMI fell in October, and is consistent with 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Uncertainty around the Budget, energy price rises and the external environment weakened sentiment.
- We think the PMI will rebound, as the MPC cuts rates, while Budget uncertainty has faded.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The official house price index rebounded in August, rising 1.0% month-to-month.
- The Chancellor’s stimulatory Budget will prevent mortgage rates from falling much further.
- But the drop in mortgage rates thus far means house prices should gain 4.5% year-over-year in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
- The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The Chancellor used most of the extra borrowing capacity permitted by her new rules to spend more now.
- This loosening, and the extra labour costs for firms, will lift inflation, forcing the MPC to ease slowly.
- Headroom is tiny, so taxes might rise again if growth flags or interest rates exceed the OBR’s forecast.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Households’ liquid assets increased in September, but we think consumers are content at current levels.
- Lump-sum repayments are falling as borrowing costs tick down, and consumer caution remains low.
- Mortgage approvals have grown strongly, reaching their highest level since August 2022.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The number of company insolvencies is high, but insolvency rates are only a little elevated.
- Rising energy and food costs boosted insolvencies post-Covid; both shocks fading is easing distress.
- Insolvencies will keep falling as the economy grows and borrowing costs decrease.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: CBI rebounds in October but still signals a weak manufacturing sector as Budget uncertainty takes a toll.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We estimate that looser fiscal policy in the October 30 Budget will boost GDP by 0.5% in 2025/26.
- As a result, the MPC will need to hold Bank Rate 25-to-50bp higher than it would otherwise.
- Rate-setters will keep cutting Bank Rate, but fiscal policy is one reason to expect only gradual cuts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We think the recent surge in gilt yields reflects stronger US data and inflation risks.
- A change to the fiscal rules will likely result in more borrowing in the upcoming Budget on October 30…
- ...but that likely had only a modest effect on market pricing, with little change in sovereign risk premia.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The PMI fell in September as firms paused work in anticipation of the upcoming budget.
- It is still signalling quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.4%, however.
- BoE Governor Bailey’s talk of ‘aggressive’ rate cuts leaves us close to adding a December reduction.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Higher core goods and services inflation in August will raise CPI inflation to 2.3%, from 2.2% in July.
- Goods inflation should tick up as used car prices rise and furniture prices rebound from July discounts.
- We look for CPI inflation to be 0.1pp less than the MPC expects, and services 0.2pp lower.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Ofgem announced a 9.5% utility price-cap increase for October, fractionally lower than we expected.
- Accordingly, we edge down our December CPI inflation forecast to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously.
- Wholesale energy futures prices and geopolitical risk point to further utility-bill hikes in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Gilt yields have fallen sharply at the short end of the curve since the MPC cut rates in August.
- But we make minimal changes to our gilt yield forecasts, as the fundamental drivers are unchanged.
- The market continues to function well, and buyers have been attracted back to gilts.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth for Q2 was below the MPC’s projection, but we estimate it is trending above potential.
- CPI services inflation was below the market consensus in July, for only the second time this year.
- We think these data do not warrant another rate cut in September; the next will come in November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The official ONS measure of house prices has risen above its 2022 peak and will likely keep gaining...
- ...as private-sector house price indices have returned to growth, and mortgage interest rates are falling.
- We expect mortgage approvals for house purchase to rise to 63K in July.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
