UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- CPI inflation likely rose to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be driven by Ofgem’s 9.5% energy utility price-cap hike and a small rise in services inflation.
- Rebounding airfares and hotel price inflation should boost services, but both are highly uncertain.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Gradually easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates gradually
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A gently easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates only gradually.
- The unemployment rate surged in September, but that was data noise; the trend remains a slow rise.
- Wage growth is still proving stubborn, as the labour market remains tight, even if it has loosened.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- US tariffs of 10% on imports would have a trivial direct impact on UK GDP.
- But the UK would be highly exposed to global trade disruption after likely retaliation against US tariffs.
- Tariffs would be stagflationary for the UK, causing the MPC to cut interest rates more slowly.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The REC weakens slightly in October, but the MPC downplay the survey now due to its poor correlation with official data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stubborn wages and prices keep the MPC cautious
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: More cautious MPC will cut once-a-quarter at most.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP should rise 0.2% month-to-month in September, and 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3.
- We expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.1% in September, and wage growth to slow.
- A massive labour-market surprise would be needed to shift the MPC, because the data are unreliable.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC cut Bank Rate by 25bp in an eight-to-one vote, matching consensus expectations.
- But the MPC raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, and the minutes read more cautiously.
- We change our BoE call, now expecting three 25bp rate cuts in 2025, compared to four previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales growth falls according to the BRC, but it should improve
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI falls but still shows solid activity.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The headline composite PMI fell in October, and is consistent with 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Uncertainty around the Budget, energy price rises and the external environment weakened sentiment.
- We think the PMI will rebound, as the MPC cuts rates, while Budget uncertainty has faded.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The official house price index rebounded in August, rising 1.0% month-to-month.
- The Chancellor’s stimulatory Budget will prevent mortgage rates from falling much further.
- But the drop in mortgage rates thus far means house prices should gain 4.5% year-over-year in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We cut our forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 0.2% from 0.3% previously, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Ms. Reeves’ Budget will keep the MPC from easing at back-to-back meetings this year.
- We expect four 25bp cuts from rate-setters in 2025, at a pace of one per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Expectations of further rate cuts continue to lift the housing market and corporate borrowing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
- The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
