UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Better anchored inflation expectations have helped deliver a more benign disinflation than feared.
- But the MPC should retain some caution as long-run household inflation expectations are a little elevated...
- …satisfaction in the BoE remains low and households are more attentive to inflation than before Covid.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation accelerates immediately after MPC rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: High energy costs will keep the trade deficit wide for the foreseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:July GDP was dragged down by erratic sectors, it will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
- Rate-setters will note slowing inflation supports faster cuts but a solid labour market suggests caution.
- The MPC will signal further rate cuts are likely, but that policy will need to stay sufficiently restrictive.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A second consecutive month of unchanged GDP gives little reason for worry.
- GDP was depressed by erratic sectors; they will rebound, and surveys point to robust growth.
- So, the MPC will still wait until November to cut interest rates again despite the downside GDP surprise.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Encouraging wage slowdown keeps the MPC on track to cut rates again in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Job growth slowed in H1, but surveys suggest hiring is improving, while redundancies remain low.
- Pay growth continues to ease, but less than AWE shows, and it remains too high for comfort.
- The labour market is loosening gradually but is far from collapsing; the MPC can afford to wait.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely rose to 2.3% in August, from 2.2% in July, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Airfares will rebound from July’s slowdown, which was driven by the early CPI collection date.
- Almost anything is possible with hotel prices, but they likely fell less than in August 2023.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing pay growth but the MPC will wait until November to cut rates again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Chancellor to raise taxes by £10B per year, only partially offsetting higher spending.
- So, the OBR will likely increase its forecasts for government borrowing over the next five years.
- Ms. Reeves likely will meet her fiscal rules by changing the definition of government debt used.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in July, thanks to retail sales growth and fewer strike days.
- Professional services are the wild card for July; we make a conservative growth assumption.
- Our Q3 growth forecast is close to rounding up to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, above the MPC’s 0.4%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Strong construction growth continues as interest rate cuts boost demand.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation continues to slow, but the pace of decline is easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The strengthening PMI means the MPC will wait until November to cut rates again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales gain more ground in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing output grows solidly giving firms the confidence to hire again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The final August PMI signals Q3 GDP growth of 0.4-to-0.5% quarter-to-quarter.
- The PMI indicates falling inflation, but rising margins and job growth will keep price rises elevated.
- The MPC has little reason to rush through another rate cut this month; it will wait until November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The July jobless rate should fall to 4.1%, with a risk of a 4.0% print, while LFS job growth should accelerate.
- We look for August PAYE employment to gain 30K month-to-month.
- We assume 0.5% month-to-month AWE growth in July, and a 0.1pp upward revision to growth in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
