UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor
- January’s composite PMI data point to GDP rising at a near-trend 0.2% quarter-on-quarter pace in Q1.
- S&P’s survey also points to 0.2% q/q growth in employ- ment, which would stop unemployment rising further.
- Producer output prices remain flat despite shipping disruptions, but services inflation is fading only slowly.
UK
- The official house price index will fall further in Q1, in response to last year's rise in mortgage rates...
- ...But mortgage payment affordability will improve rap- idly this year, as rates come down and incomes rise.
- The timeliest indicators of house purchase demand have rebounded; prices will return to their peak by year-end.
UK
- We expect sterling to continue to appreciate gradually against the dollar, reaching $1.30 by the end of the year.
- Markets’ expectations for Fed rate cuts look well founded, but the MPC will be more cautious than investors expect.
- Public opinion would have to shift dramatically for the election to lead to a sterling-damaging hung parliament.
UK
- Net migration has jumped over the past two years, following a sharp drop in 2020 and 2021.
- The government estimates that this year’s policy changes will reduce immigration by 25%...
- ...But Skilled Worker visa numbers won’t fall by much, and total arrivals will spike in Q1, before the rules change.
UK
- Growth in money supply remained weak in November, largely due to subdued mortgage lending...
- ...But a recovery should take hold from Q2, as buyer de- mand picks up in response to the falling mortgage rates.
- Consumers probably continue to borrow more to fund consumption, as borrowing costs start to come down.
UK
- Business investment as a share of GDP still was in line with its 2015-to-19 average, despite falling in Q3.
- We think it will fall further in the first half of the year, as firms continue to grapple with high borrow ng costs...
- ...But strong balance sheets and recovering sentiment should prevent a sharp decline.
UK
- The economy flirted with recession in 2023, but green shoots emerged towards the end of the year.
- A sharp fall in energy prices suggests CPI inflation will continue to fall quickly, probably touching 2% during Q2.
- Markets' interest rate expectations, however, have fallen too far; we still think the MPC will wait until May.
UK
