UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Webinar Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Q1 GDP growth was raised to 0.7% quarter-to quarter, and the expansion was broad-based.
- We expect GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, and 0.3% in Q3 and Q4...
- ...As strong real income growth and stabilising saving boost consumer spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
- The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
- The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC can take some comfort from one-year consumer inflation expectations falling back to average.
- But five-year expectations are elevated, and trust in the central bank is failing to recover as inflation falls.
- Trust in the BoE is faring worse than trust in the ECB, suggesting UK inflation will prove more persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The next government will inherit no fiscal headroom and implausible public-spending forecasts.
- The Labour Party has ruled out increases to three-quarters of the tax base, limiting options.
- We expect the next government to raise duties, tier BoE reserves, and increase public spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE money and credit data suggest higher mortgage rates have taken the steam out of consumption.
- But the consumer credit data are distorted by data issues, and saving was driven by a record ISA flow.
- Business confidence is still rising, so we think the economy will keep growing robustly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, the strongest since Q4 2021.
- The recovery has been broad-based across sectors and will continue as consumers spend rising income.
- Strong growth shows interest rates are likely not as restrictive as the MPC is factoring in.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The April composite PMI signals 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Rising new orders and buoyant business confidence suggest that solid growth will be maintained.
- Services inflation slowed according to the PMI, but input costs surged after April’s minimum-wage hike.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumer confidence in the economic outlook lies close to its average in the second half of the 2010s.
- Moreover, consumers’ unemployment expectations have fallen to their lowest since February 2022.
- We expect 0.5% quarter-to-quarter consumption growth in 2024, but delays to rate cuts pose a risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales ended Q1 with a whimper, stagnating in March as department-store sales tanked.
- Look through the month-to-month volatility though, and retail sales growth is trending up.
- We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, after Governor Bailey downplayed the inflation miss.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
- Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
- The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by rising household real income.
- Energy-price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in Q2; sticky services will return inflation above 2% in Q4.
- We expect the MPC gradually to ease its restrictive policy, with the first cut in June and 75bp total in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Revised data still show a minor recession last year, but it’s an even smaller 0.4% cumulative GDP fall.
- The recession was driven by rising saving, as consumers worried about energy bills and interest rates.
- The saving rate won’t increase further from its elevated level, so consumption can recover in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumers’ confidence in their personal financial situation rose to a 28-month high in March.
- Retail sales beat the consensus in February, staying on track for a 1.7% quarter-to-quarter gain in Q1.
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to comfortably exceed the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Bernanke review, due in April, to recommend three changes to MPC communication.
- These are: to publish interest rate projections, switch to a staff forecast and make more use of scenarios.
- This will cause volatility, as markets learn about the new communication, likely implemented in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect household real income to rise 2.2% year-over-year in 2024...
- ...As real wage growth stays strong, and Chancellor Hunt’s tax cuts add 0.8pp.
- A falling saving rate will help too; consumption should rise 0.5% quarter-to-quarter through 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We remain optimistic about GDP this year, expecting quarter-to-quarter growth to average 0.3%.
- Energy-price falls will lower inflation below 2% in Q2, supporting the real wage outlook.
- We expect the MPC to lower rates by 75bp in 2024, but sticky services inflation could delay the first cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK