- House prices have almost recovered their losses since October 2022.
- House-price inflation is now trending up at nearly 3% month-to-month annualised.
- We think that house prices will rise 4% year-over-year by Q4 2024 as mortgage interest rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Jobs market rebounding but wage growth stays soft for now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation edged down in July, but will accelerate as mortgage rates fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction PMI roars ahead.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales return to growth in July.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The PMI signals steady growth now and a stronger expansion to follow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Private sales remain weak, total registrations continue to grow.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to be unchanged month-to-month in June, as retail sales and doctors’ strikes hit output.
- That would leave Q2 GDP up 0.6% quarter-to-quarter, just below the MPC’s new forecast.
- We think recent growth reflects stronger underlying momentum than the MPC assumes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Doves let loose, another rate cut is coming by year-end.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Supporting the MPC’s decision to cut rates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing growth and employment to accelerate as business optimism soars.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation beats expectations again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fading consumer caution and renewed corporate risk appetite bode well for growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP growth continues to outperform consensus estimates and MPC projections.
- Services inflation remains elevated and is overshooting forecasts by a widening margin.
- We think the MPC will wait and cut Bank Rate in September, but it is a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Unrealistic spending plans mean the next government will borrow more and raise taxes.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Colder weather deters shoppers but overall GDP will still jump in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Imminent interest rate cuts boost consumers’ confidence.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Cooler weather in June led to a 1.2% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes.
- We think the ONS data exaggerate the drop in retail sales because surveys suggest a stronger reading.
- The new government will likely borrow £10B-to-£20B a year more and raise taxes to fund more spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market is easing making an August rate cut a very close call.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
