Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

June 2024 - U.K. Housing Watch

STEADY GROWTH DESPITE STICKY RATES...

  • ...HOUSING MARKET ACTIVITY TO ACCELERATE IN H2

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

27 June 2024 UK Monitor Rebounding GDP growth is slowing labour-market loosening

  • Official labour-market data remain unreliable despite statisticians’ attempts to boost the sample size.
  • Surveys suggest labour-market loosening has slowed as GDP growth has rebounded.
  • The decline in immigration removes one factor that has helped ease the labour market since 2022.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

25 June 2024 UK Monitor Just meeting the Budget growth forecasts will be hard

  • Government borrowing forecasts are already based on GDP growth accelerating.
  • The next government needs to boost growth just to fund implausibly weak Budget spending plans.
  • Tax receipts will fall £30B a year below forecasts if productivity and participation match recent trends.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Public Finances, May 2024

  • In one line: Borrowing close to Budget forecasts, but unrealistic spending plans mean the next government will borrow more and raise taxes.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Retail Sales, May 2024

  • In one line:Shoppers return in force, offering upside risks to Q2 GDP.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, June 2024

  • In one line: Strengthening real wage growth and emerging hopes for the economy boost consumer confidence.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

24June 2024 UK Monitor The PMI will rebound, and signals inflation easing only slowly

  • The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
  • Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
  • The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

21 June 2024 UK Monitor The MPC is itching to cut, so two rate reductions this year are likely

  • The MPC voted seven-to-two to keep interest rates on hold, as expected.
  • The minutes of the meeting give the strong impression that the MPC is itching to cut rates.
  • We stick to our call that the MPC will wait until September, but August is very much live.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, April

  • In one line: House prices keep rising despite higher mortgage rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May 2024

  • In one line: Persistent services inflation means more delay to rate cuts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

20 June 2024 UK Monitor Persistent services inflation means further delay to rate cuts

  • CPI inflation returned to the 2.0% target in May, for the first time since July 2021…
  • …But CPI services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.4pp, more than the 0.3pp miss in April.
  • So, we push back our call for the first MPC rate cut to September, from August previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

19 June 2024 UK Monitor Short-term house price stagnation, medium-term inflation

  • House-price inflation has slowed as rising mortgage interest rates have deterred buyers…
  • …But the typical two-year mortgage rate will drop 50bp by year-end if market pricing of rate cuts is right.
  • We expect house prices to regain momentum and rise 3% year-over-year in December 2024.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 June 2024 UK Monitor Taxes will rise but sterling will do just fine

  • The next government will inevitably raise taxes and public spending more than budgeted for currently.
  • We expect that to support sterling by helping to keep market interest rates elevated.
  • We forecast GBPUSD to rise to 1.33 at the end of the year, with risks to the upside.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17June 2024 UK Monitor Inflation expectations more of a problem in the UK than elsewhere

  • The MPC can take some comfort from one-year consumer inflation expectations falling back to average.
  • But five-year expectations are elevated, and trust in the central bank is failing to recover as inflation falls.
  • Trust in the BoE is faring worse than trust in the ECB, suggesting UK inflation will prove more persistent.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, May 2024

  • In one line: Higher mortgage rates take a toll but estate agents expect a recovery later in the year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, May 2024

  • In one line: Higher mortgage rates take a toll but estate agents expect a recovery later in the year. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 June 2024 UK Monitor MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut

  • We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to hold Bank Rate, after growth, wages and inflation beat its forecasts.
  • Inflation persistence fading more slowly than expected means the MPC will keep its guidance unchanged.
  • We think slowing wage growth and inflation will trigger a rate cut in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, April 2024

  • In one line: Not a lot happening once we look through the noise from erratics, gold and fuel.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP April 2024

  • In one line: Flat GDP is a result, leaving the economy on track to grow 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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