UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Global Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
- We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
- Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The National Living Wage hike will push private-sector regular pay to a solid 0.8% month-to-month April rise.
- But survey indicators continue to signal gradually slowing wage growth, as recruitment difficulties ease.
- Average weekly earnings growth should slow decisively in H2 2024 as the NLW distortions fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Opinion polls differ widely, but they all suggest Labour will win a large majority in the July 4 general election.
- PM Sunak’s attempts to convert undecided older voters may be hurt by his poor approval ratings.
- The BRC Shop Price Index drives up our May CPI inflation forecast to 2.1%, from 2.0% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
- The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
- So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in August, versus June previously, following strong April inflation.
- Services inflation barely slowed in April and was 0.4pp stronger than the MPC expected.
- The services strength was widespread and not concentrated in a handful of erratic items.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Polls suggest the Labour Party will win the general election that must be held by January 2025.
- The party plans supply-side boosting initiatives, from freeing planning rules to ‘crowding in’ investment.
- Those policies pose modest upside risk to current UK potential growth of around 1.5% per year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, as services inflation undershoots its forecasts.
- The MPC’s words in any case signal the precise path of data is not that important for the first rate cut...
- ... Data may matter more for subsequent changes, so robust wage growth will mean one cut per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Sharply falling LFS employment suggests the labour market is easing quickly.
- But those data are misleading, and PAYE jobs will be revised up; the labour market is easing gradually.
- The MPC needs to brace for another strong pay gain in April, but will likely cut in June nonetheless.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 2.0% in April, from 3.2% in March, 0.1pp lower than the MPC forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility-price-cap cut as well as slowing goods and food inflation chop 95bp off inflation.
- We expect services inflation to decline to 5.4% in April, as indexed price rises are lower than in 2023.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A triple whammy of changes from the MPC suggests a June rate cut is more likely than not.
- Two rate-setters voted for a cut, and MPC forecasts indicate three Bank Rate reductions this year.
- The MPC’s guidance signals that pay settlements data over the next two months could seal the deal.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in April, and March’s fall to be revised smaller.
- The jobless rate should rise to 4.3%, and private-sector regular pay will gain 0.4% month-to-month.
- Wages will likely beat the MPC’s forecast but preserve the picture of a gradually easing labour market.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.1% in April, from 3.2% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price-cap cut contributes about a third of that inflation fall, the rest is broad-based.
- Services inflation likely slowed to 5.4% in April, 0.1pp stronger than the MPC expects.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation and growth have beaten MPC forecasts, but market rate expectations have overreacted.
- So, next week’s new MPC forecasts will signal earlier and more cuts than the market is currently pricing.
- We expect the MPC to vote 8-to-1 to keep rates onhold and still look for the first cut in June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think GDP was unchanged in March, after rising 0.1% in February.
- That would be enough to deliver Q1 growth of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Consumer services contributed 0.16pp of that, but the turnaround has been
broad-based across sectors.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The renewed rise in mortgage rates in April suggests the March pick-up in secured credit demand will reverse...
- ...But stronger demand for unsecured credit is here to stay; debt levels remain very low relative to incomes.
- The March jump in corporate-bond issuance likely was a one-off, but the outlook for capex is benign.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by consumer spending.
- Energy price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in May; strong services will push inflation to 2.3% in Q4.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate three times this year, starting in June, but the risk is it eases only twice.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Month-to-month falls in the Nationwide and Halifax house-price indices in March were a blip.
- Mortgage interest rates will resume their gentle decline in May, and estate agents remain upbeat.
- We expect house prices to rise 4% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and the same again in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The first estimate of 23/24 borrowing topped the OBR’s forecast by £7B, but revisions may improve the picture.
- The OBR will likely revise up its forecast for debt interest payments and nudge it down for the tax-to-GDP ratio...
- ...But the Chancellor can pencil in even more implau- sible forecasts for spending in order to cut taxes now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The PMI is consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- The PAYE employment drop in March looks like noise, as the PMI records strengthening jobs growth.
- Price pressures remain elevated, with the minimum-wage hike boosting input price inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Major employers are matching April’s 9.8% NLW hike for those earning a little above the minimum wage.
- The BoE Agents survey finds stronger pay growth than last year in consumer goods and services firms.
- We expect the NLW to boost private pay by 0.5%, with
upside risk, compared to the MPC’s 0.3% forecast.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK