UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line:Some of the downside was noise and will unwind, but GDP will now do well to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- In one line: The trade balance should improve in November as erratic falls unwind and goods exports rise.
- An MPC interest rate cut today is beyond doubt after inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 20bp.
- We add an April rate cut to our forecast too, although that is a finely balanced call still…
- ...Because underlying inflation pressure remains much firmer than the headline inflation drop suggests.
- Chaos running up to the November Budget hit hiring, but by less than payrolls suggest.
- Payrolls will be revised better, vacancies are rising, and jobless claims are down on a year earlier.
- The MPC has enough evidence to cut on Thursday, but stubborn pay growth will keep it cautious.
- A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
- We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
- …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.
- In one line: Signs of stubborn wage growth despite weak jobs are widespread.
In one line: Budget circus hits sentiment, which can recover now the event has passed.
In one line: Catastrophic PMI saying conditions are as bad as during a full lockdown is hard to take at face value, but risks clearly lie towards output falls now.
- In one line: Pre-Budget chaos drags on consumer spending.
- We expect the MPC to vote five-to-four to cut Bank Rate at its meeting on December 18.
- Hawks will likely note supply-side weakness, and that the Budget raises medium-term inflation a little.
- The MPC will need to change its guidance for gradual further cuts as it approaches neutral.
- In one line: House price inflation should accelerate slightly now that the Budget is behind us.
- In one line: The money and credit data suggests few pre-Budget worries in October.
- In one line: Holding up well in the face of chaotic Budget speculation through November.
- We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 13K month-to-month in November, as Budget worries hit jobs.
- The headline LFS unemployment rate will hold at 5.0% in October, as August’s single-month rise corrects.
- Pay growth to slow in October, but wage gains look set to stabilise over the coming 12 months.
- We expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
- A month-to-month fall in food prices and base effects from duty hikes in 2024 will drag inflation lower.
- Our forecast for headline CPI inflation in November sees it 10bp higher than the MPC expects.
- Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
- But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
- The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.
- Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
- But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer.
- So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.
- We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
- Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
- Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.
- Consumers added to their savings and took on less credit in October, as the Budget approached.
- Bank lending to firms continues to rise year-over-year, but net external finance raised by PNFCs dropped.
- The housing-market data remain solid; mortgage approvals eased only slightly and transactions rose.
- In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.
