UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Daily Monitor Datanotes Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Few reasons for builders to be more optimistic in 2026, so the construction PMI will remain weak.
- In one line: Job falls ease after the Budget circus ends while inflation remains stick.
- In one line: Discounting and post-Budget relief boost autos sales in December, but the trend remains upwards.
- In one line: Look past the dissapointing headline, because forward-looking balances improved and price pressures strengthened.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.3% in December, from 3.2%, as tobacco duties rise.
- A later CPI collection date than we assume would tip our forecast to 3.4% via higher airfares inflation.
- Strong BRC Shop Prices for clothes in December pose an upside risk to our forecast.
- Look past the disappointing headline PMI for December; forward-looking balances improved.
- The Q4 PMI is consistent with 0.0-to-0.2% growth, but new orders point to an improvement in January.
- Price pressures remain stubborn despite weak jobs, which will keep the MPC cautious.
- In one line: The money and credit data for November show a solid footing for activity in 2026.
- In one line: Downside news focused in volatile items and partly driven by early discounting, while underlying inflation pressures remained firm.
- In one line:Budget chaos hits retail sales, but arguably by less than might have been feared.
- In one line: Weak house price inflation in October means we cut our Q4 forecast.
- In one line:Fiscal plans rest on shaky foundations.
- In one line: A post-Budget sigh of relief from consumers, and sentiment has further to rise.
- In one line: Cautious cut, we see one more in April, but it will be another closely fought decision.
- In one line: Activity should continue to rise in Q1 2026.
- In one line: Budget chaos hits job growth, but pay growth remains strong nonetheless so the MPC will have to be cautious.
- In one line:Some of the downside was noise and will unwind, but GDP will now do well to rise 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- In one line: The trade balance should improve in November as erratic falls unwind and goods exports rise.
- An MPC interest rate cut today is beyond doubt after inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast by 20bp.
- We add an April rate cut to our forecast too, although that is a finely balanced call still…
- ...Because underlying inflation pressure remains much firmer than the headline inflation drop suggests.
- Chaos running up to the November Budget hit hiring, but by less than payrolls suggest.
- Payrolls will be revised better, vacancies are rising, and jobless claims are down on a year earlier.
- The MPC has enough evidence to cut on Thursday, but stubborn pay growth will keep it cautious.
- A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
- We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
- …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.
