UK Datanote: Retail Sales, June 2024

• In one line:Colder weather deters shoppers but overall GDP will still jump in Q2.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, July 2024

• In one line: Imminent interest rate cuts boost consumers’ confidence.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, May / June 2024

• In one line: The labour market is easing making an August rate cut a very close call.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, May

• In one line: House prices defy high interest rates to rise strongly in May.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2024

• In one line: Erratic hotel prices drive June inflation surprise, but this is too strong for the MPC to cut in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK International Trade, May 2024

• In one line: Import prices signal a modest uptick in core goods CPI inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK GDP May 2024

• In one line: Stronger-than-expected growth pressures the MPC to delay a rate cut until September.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2024

• In one line: House price inflation holds steady in June, but will rise in the coming months as buyers return.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2024

• In one line: Bad weather holds back retail sales again.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, June 2024

• In one line: Volatile due to the general election, but pay growth seems to be rising.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Results, July 2024

• In one line: Labour wins a huge majority but will need to move fast with policy changes.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Exit Poll, July 2024

• In one line: Exit poll projects large Labour majority.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, June 2024

• In one line: Still weak but registrations will pick up later this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, June 2024

• In one line: Two steps forward, one step back.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, June 2024

• In one line: More encouragement for the MPC to cut rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, May 2024

• In one line: Consumers are back in business.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, June 2024

• In one line: House prices rise as mortgage rates look set to fall again.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, June 2024

• In one line: Manufacturing continues to recover solidly.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK National Accounts, Q1 2024

• In one line: GDP growth rebounds as consumers find their mojo.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

June 2024 - UK Chartbook

WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED

• ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, CAUTIOUSLY

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK