UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Daily Monitor Chartbook Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Gilt yields have soared, as yields have risen globally and the markets price in UK fiscal risk.
- Elevated inflation expectations partly explain why UK yields have reached their highest since 1998.
- We think market-based expectations are being suppressed by the RPI-CPI transition in 2030.
- In one line: Strong growth and stubborn price pressures will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year.
- In one line: The PMI inches up but still remains overly downbeat.
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressures should keep the MPC cautious, but falling employment is a building risk.
- In one line: Private car registrations should continue to rise as displacement demand drives sales.
SOLID GROWTH AND STICKY INFLATION...
- …THE MPC WILL HOLD BANK RATE FOR THE REST OF 2025
- We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
- We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
- Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.
- GDP growth beat consensus again in Q2, and surveys point to improving momentum so far in Q3.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, as wage growth remains far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Job surveys were weaker than we expected but continue to point to payroll falls easing.
- In one line: Solid credit flows and rising mortgage approvals signal confidence amongst business and households.
- In one line: The housing market is still stuttering after April’s stamp-duty hike, but prices will rise in H2.
- In one line: The fall in the Manufacturing PMI looks like a blip, sentiment should improve as tariff uncertainty abates.
- In one line:The Chancellor will still have to raise taxes in October despite borrowing matching official forecasts.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence to stay rangebound for the rest of the year.
- In one line: Growth will match the MPC’s expectations in Q3.
- In one line: House prices are recovering quickly from the stamp duty hike and will continue to rise in H2.
- In one line: Another hawkish blow to the MPC means no more cuts this year.
- In one line: RICS falters in July but it will gradually rise in H2.
- In one line:Strong GDP growth in H1 illustrates a high neutral rate.
- In one line: The REC improves in July but signals the jobs market remains weak.
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressure despite falling employment suggests a cautious MPC.
