UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Lower 2026 inflation, but delayed fiscal consolidation lacks credibility and gives the MPC little reason to cut 2-year ahead inflation forecast.
- In one line: Dovish even if the PMI overreacts to politics, so a December rate cut is even more likely.
- The bar to data preventing a December MPC rate cut is now very high, in our view…
- …But we expect an extended pause after a December cut, with inflation and growth likely to hold up.
- The Budget will likely be less disinflationary and less credible after Ms. Reeves ditched an income-tax hike.
- In one line: Enough for a December cut, but also enough to keep the MPC cautious about the pace of subsequent cuts.
- In one line: Tax-hike speculation to continue dragging on house prices in Q4.
- In one line:Weak growth seals a December rate cut, but be careful because underlying growth is better than the headline.
- In one line: Car production shutdown tanks exports, but that will unwind in October and November.
- In one line: REC survey shows stabilising jobs market, suggesting weak official payrolls will be revised better.
- In one line: The spectacle of months of tax speculation takes its toll, but house price inflation should recover after the Budget.
- Weak payrolls and a fall in GDP in September make a December rate cut highly likely…
- …But we hold off forecasting a rate cut early next year, as the underlying picture is better than the headlines.
- October inflation will likely fall to 3.5%, but the Budget looks less disinflationary after a political storm.
- In one line: Fiscal worries begin to weigh on consumer spending.
- The MPC signalled a December rate cut but uncertainty about how many more.
- We look for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter Q3 GDP growth and stable payrolls, in data published this week.
- CPI inflation should drop to 3.5% in October—due November 19—0.1pp below the MPC’s call.
- In one line: Dovish hold, so we are comfortable with our call for a December cut.
- In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.
- In one line: Predictable correction after the strongest September in five years, the underlying trend is up.
- In one line: Reopening after the cyber attack boosts the manufacturing PMI, but the outlook remains challenging.
- We retain our Q3 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, as the activity data have held firm...
- ...But softer-than-expected inflation means we have brought forward our call for a rate cut to December.
- We are waiting for further information on the Budget before forecasting an additional cut to Bank Rate.
- In one line: Rising mortgage approvals and solid credit flows suggest confident consumers.
- In one line:Retail sales should continue to rise despite Budget uncertainty.
- In one line: Consumers are resilient in the face of tax hike rumours.
