UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Higher energy costs will weigh on the trade balance.
- In one line:January disappointment partly driven by erratic sectors that will rebound, but we shave our Q1 growth call to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Markets are pricing a more persistent energy-price rise as the war in Iran continues.
- As a result, markets have started to price in higher medium- as well as short-term inflation.
- We see Bank Rate on hold throughout 2026, but that is sensitive to energy and the government’s response.
- In one line: War in the Middle East will hit housing market sentiment in the coming months.
- In one line: Retail sales growth should pick up when the weather clears, but war in the Middle East remains a downside risk to activity.
- In one line: Hiring sentiment improves in February, but war in the Middle East will hit business confidence hard.
- In one line: Wet weather weighs on the Construction PMI in February, and sentiment will continue to remain weak in 2026.
- In one line: Car registrations will continue to rise over the course of 2026.
- The MPC’s hopes of hitting the inflation target will have to wait another year if commodity prices are sustained.
- So, we expect the MPC to wait until April to ease, and see only one rate cut this year.
- A quick end to the war would bring forward cuts, but a protracted conflict would mean no reductions this year.
- In one line:Sales growth jumps, hiring plans improve, and wage growth remains stubbornly strong.
- In one line: Growth rebounded in the new year and price pressures remain strong
- In one line: The manufacturing PMI suggests activity is stable, but surging energy prices will hit sentiment.
- In one line: Strong credit flows and falling saving suggest the UK was rebounding strongly in the New Year.
- In one line: The housing market remains stable according to Nationwide, but activity will strengthen over 2026.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence should recover in 2026 as the fundamentals improve.
- Easing inflation expectations and a soft labour-market report seal a March rate cut...
- ...But the activity data remain solid, and business surveys point to sticky price pressures.
- So, we continue to expect just one more cut to Bank Rate this year.
- Unemployment hit a five-year high in December, meaning the MPC will cut Bank Rate in March.
- But the LFS data remain unreliable, while other indicators suggest a stabilising labour market.
- Strong retail sales and a jump in the PMI leave GDP on track to rise by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1.
- In one line: Inflation miss too small to stop a March rate cut, but stubborn services inflation means a second cut this year is far from certain.
- In one line: The housing market was resilient in 2025, but prices will rise more quickly in 2026.
- In one line: Consumers’ spending will boost January GDP growth.
