UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- GDP grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, the strongest since Q4 2021.
- The recovery has been broad-based across sectors and will continue as consumers spend rising income.
- Strong growth shows interest rates are likely not as restrictive as the MPC is factoring in.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The April composite PMI signals 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Rising new orders and buoyant business confidence suggest that solid growth will be maintained.
- Services inflation slowed according to the PMI, but input costs surged after April’s minimum-wage hike.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumer confidence in the economic outlook lies close to its average in the second half of the 2010s.
- Moreover, consumers’ unemployment expectations have fallen to their lowest since February 2022.
- We expect 0.5% quarter-to-quarter consumption growth in 2024, but delays to rate cuts pose a risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Retail sales ended Q1 with a whimper, stagnating in March as department-store sales tanked.
- Look through the month-to-month volatility though, and retail sales growth is trending up.
- We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, after Governor Bailey downplayed the inflation miss.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
- Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
- The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by rising household real income.
- Energy-price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in Q2; sticky services will return inflation above 2% in Q4.
- We expect the MPC gradually to ease its restrictive policy, with the first cut in June and 75bp total in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Revised data still show a minor recession last year, but it’s an even smaller 0.4% cumulative GDP fall.
- The recession was driven by rising saving, as consumers worried about energy bills and interest rates.
- The saving rate won’t increase further from its elevated level, so consumption can recover in 2024.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK