UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The data-flow over the past month has been solid, with underlying growth rising and payrolls stabilising…
- ...But the war in Iran means we cut our growth forecasts and raise our inflation projections.
- We see rates on hold in 2026, but it is hard to argue with market pricing for several hikes.
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
- Higher-for-longer energy prices raise our inflation forecast, and we now build in second-round effects.
- We cut our GDP growth forecast another 0.5%—now 0.8% since the war started—partly due to higher rates.
- Market pricing for three hikes is too many, but not wildly too many given upside risk to energy.
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
- Markets are pricing a more persistent energy-price rise as the war in Iran continues.
- As a result, markets have started to price in higher medium- as well as short-term inflation.
- We see Bank Rate on hold throughout 2026, but that is sensitive to energy and the government’s response.
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with Ms. Dhingra and Mr. Taylor voting for a cut.
- The data flow has been slightly dovish lately, but war in Iran has ripped up the ‘disinflation’ playbook.
- Guidance will shift towards giving rate-setters the option to hike in 2026, if required.
- We plot how the 2026 energy surge, and position of the UK economy, compares to 2022.
- Oil and natural-gas prices have so far risen by a similar percentage to 2022, but may be fading sooner.
- More spare capacity exists and M4 growth is slower than in 2022, but inflation expectations are deanchored.
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
- President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.
- We expect inflation to trough at 2.6% in June and peak at 3.4% in December, given energy futures yesterday.
- We expect the flash payroll estimate to show a 5K month-to-month fall in February.
- Private-sector wage growth should tick up in January, and surveys suggest stabilisation ahead.
- The MPC’s hopes of hitting the inflation target will have to wait another year if commodity prices are sustained.
- So, we expect the MPC to wait until April to ease, and see only one rate cut this year.
- A quick end to the war would bring forward cuts, but a protracted conflict would mean no reductions this year.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.9% in February, from 3.0% in January.
- A fall in motor fuel prices, slowing rent inflation, and a drop in live music and hotel prices drag inflation down.
- Commodity price rises mean inflation will sink to only 2.4% in June and rebound to 3.0% in September.
- We now expect a rate cut in April, compared to March previously, after another surge in commodity prices.
- Our forecast today is a holding position as we wait to see where gas prices settle at the end of the week.
- The Chancellor boosted her headroom in the Spring Statement, but bigger challenges await in the autumn.
- Energy-price rises, if sustained, would add 0.2-to-0.3pp to UK inflation in July, and 0.2pp at year-end.
- The market’s 50:50 probability of a March cut looks fair in these early hours after events in the Middle East.
- But two MPC rate cuts this year are unlikely if energy prices drive inflation to re-accelerate in H2 2026.
- Easing inflation expectations and a soft labour-market report seal a March rate cut...
- ...But the activity data remain solid, and business surveys point to sticky price pressures.
- So, we continue to expect just one more cut to Bank Rate this year.
- Unemployment hit a five-year high in December, meaning the MPC will cut Bank Rate in March.
- But the LFS data remain unreliable, while other indicators suggest a stabilising labour market.
- Strong retail sales and a jump in the PMI leave GDP on track to rise by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1.
- Energy, education, food, rents and airfares cut inflation to 3.0% in January, and further falls are likely.
- But services inflation exceeded the MPC’s forecast by 30bp, and underlying inflation accelerated.
- A March rate cut remains highly likely despite the inflation miss, as rate-setters focus on unemployment.
- Jobless rate hitting a 5-year high of 5.2% in December makes a March rate cut more likely.
- But payrolls beat consensus and have nearly stabilised, while redundancies appear to have peaked.
- Private pay rose by the most month-to-month since April and will likely exceed the MPC’s January call.
- We reflect on our calls, and what we should learn from the misses, in our 500th UK Economic Monitor.
- Solid growth and persistent inflation in 2025 panned out, but job growth was weaker than we expected.
- Our three key themes now? The high neutral rate; structural labour-market shifts; persistent inflation.
- Further evidence of a rebound in growth came from the January RICS, BRC and REC surveys.
- Q4 GDP disappointed consensus—not us—but the crucial business service sectors can drive a better Q1.
- We expect inflation 0.1pp higher than the MPC, and payrolls to fall 10K month-to-month, in January.
