Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

18 July 2025 UK Monitor Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation

  • Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
  • The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
  • We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 July 2025 UK Monitor Most of June's CPI inflation rise was genuine

  • Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
  • We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
  • We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 July 2025 UK Monitor The ONS's BICS survey is a goldmine of information

  • The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
  • The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
  • US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 July 2025 UK Monitor Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth

  • We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
  • Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
  • Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: underlying growth is improving as uncertainty fades

  • A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
  • But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
  • We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 September 2024 UK Monitor Government debt on an unsustainable trajectory

  • The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
  • Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
  • Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 July 2025 UK Monitor The housing market rebounds from stamp duty disruption

  • Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
  • The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
  • Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 July 2025 UK Monitor Unsustainable UK fiscal policy makes the market vulnerable

  • The UK’s unsustainable government-debt trajectory leaves gilts vulnerable to selling off.
  • The OBR this week detailed risks to its projection that government debt will hit 270% of GDP in the 2070s.
  • Gilt yields will likely avoid a sharp sell-off as long as  the government sticks to reasonably tight fiscal rules.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 July 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: 3.5% in June, driven by higher food prices

  • We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in April, driven by food prices.
  • An earlier CPI collection date than our assumption of June 17 would pose downside risk…
  • …Clothes and hotel prices likely strengthened later in the month as temperatures rose.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

8 July 2025 UK Monitor Labour market preview: job growth recovering, pay growth slowing gradually

  • We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
  • Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
  • Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

7 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: good rebound vibes keep us expecting one cut

  • A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
  • Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
  • The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 July 2025 UK Monitor Between a rock and a hard place sits fudging the fiscal rules

  • U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
  • We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
  • The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 July 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely rebounded in May to grow by 0.1% month-to-month

  • We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
  • We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
  • We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

2 July 2025 UK Monitor Surging food prices will drive up CPI inflation to 3.5% in June

  • We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
  • Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
  • Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

26 June 2025 UK Monitor Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving

  • Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
  • May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
  • Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

23 June 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely

  • Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
  • We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
  • June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

19 June 2025 UK Monitor Inflation ticks down in May but underlying pressures remain strong

  • Inflation fell in May, as the ONS chopped 0.1pp off price growth to correct for the error in April’s data.
  • Headline CPI at 3.4% in May, down from 3.5%, would have been unchanged without the ONS’s adjustment.
  • Energy price increases mean we now expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from 3.6% before.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 June 2025 UK Monitor Long-term inflation expectations are too high

  • Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
  • Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
  • Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 June 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: a data dove-fest, but normal service will be resumed

  • The MPC will be in a pickle if oil prices rise another 5-to-10%, as inflation would peak close to 4%.
  • Payrolls and GDP exaggerate weakness; we expect rebounds in June and May, respectively.
  • We look for 3.4% CPI inflation in May and little change to the MPC’s “gradual and careful” guidance.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

13 June 2025 UK Monitor GDP's April drop was exaggerated; output will rebound

  • The unwinding of tariff and tax-hike front-running dragged down GDP growth in April…
  • …But the monthly fall looks exaggerated to us, so we expect GDP to rebound in May.
  • We thus only shave our forecast for Q2 GDP growth, to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, from 0.3% previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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