UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- MPC members argued that tighter financial conditions were doing the job of rate hikes for now.
- The Market Participants Survey in particular appears to have been influential in Governor Bailey’s view.
- But the MaPS suggests the MPC will have to hike this summer to maintain financial conditions.
- The MPC’s decision to hold rates, and the vote split, were in line with consensus.
- The MPC’s guidance suggests to us a couple of rate hikes this year, fewer than the market had priced.
- Mr. Bailey’s communication in the press conference jarred with MPC scenarios, so we detail our take.
- Household inflation expectations eased—although were still high—in April, according to YouGov.
- But we think the MPC can take limited comfort, because expectations still look de-anchored.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now than before 2022, raising risks of second-round effects.
- Risks are skewed to a hawkish hold by the Bank of England as the DMP shows rising price pressures.
- A slew of surveys last week suggests inflation risks are more prominent than growth weakness.
- Bank Rate expectations are moving with oil prices rather than economic data.
- We expect the MPC to vote nine-to-zero to hold Bank Rate, with risks of one or two votes for a cut.
- The MPC is likely to keep its guidance little changed, emphasising that it stands ready to act if needed.
- We expect the MPC to raise its 2026 inflation forecast but cut the two-year ahead number to 1.9%.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices, driven by oil-price rises, pushed inflation up to 3.3% in March.
- Core inflation slid by 10bp, but the mix of inflation was hawkish, in our view.
- Underlying services prices rose the most three-months-on-three-months in almost a year.
- Payrolls were stable in March, despite the Iran war, once we adjust for likely revisions.
- Unemployment corrected for last August’s volatile rise and suggests the MPC was too pessimistic.
- Slowing pay growth was dovish, but PAYE median pay and surveys suggest the official data have undershot.
- February GDP exaggerates monthly growth, but stripping out noise the economy was growing solidly.
- Oil prices consistently below $100/bl mean we are close to removing our forecast for an MPC rate hike.
- A payroll fall and wage slowdown in this week’s data will keep the MPC cautious about hiking.
- February GDP exaggerates the growth trend, because of erratic gains in a number of sectors.
- But growth was surprisingly strong even if we strip out the noise; the economy was recovering.
- We now look for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
- The temporary two-week ceasefire is already under strain, suggesting energy prices will remain high...
- ...and the data-flow since the start of the Iran war has been fractionally hawkish, in our view.
- But the MPC will wait for more clarity before jumping, so we expect a hold in April and a rate hike in June.
- The data-flow over the past month has been solid, with underlying growth rising and payrolls stabilising…
- ...But the war in Iran means we cut our growth forecasts and raise our inflation projections.
- We see rates on hold in 2026, but it is hard to argue with market pricing for several hikes.
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
- Higher-for-longer energy prices raise our inflation forecast, and we now build in second-round effects.
- We cut our GDP growth forecast another 0.5%—now 0.8% since the war started—partly due to higher rates.
- Market pricing for three hikes is too many, but not wildly too many given upside risk to energy.
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
- Markets are pricing a more persistent energy-price rise as the war in Iran continues.
- As a result, markets have started to price in higher medium- as well as short-term inflation.
- We see Bank Rate on hold throughout 2026, but that is sensitive to energy and the government’s response.
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with Ms. Dhingra and Mr. Taylor voting for a cut.
- The data flow has been slightly dovish lately, but war in Iran has ripped up the ‘disinflation’ playbook.
- Guidance will shift towards giving rate-setters the option to hike in 2026, if required.
- We plot how the 2026 energy surge, and position of the UK economy, compares to 2022.
- Oil and natural-gas prices have so far risen by a similar percentage to 2022, but may be fading sooner.
- More spare capacity exists and M4 growth is slower than in 2022, but inflation expectations are deanchored.
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
- President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.
