Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Weekly Monitor Daily Monitor Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

7 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: good rebound vibes keep us expecting one cut

  • A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
  • Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
  • The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

4 July 2025 UK Monitor Between a rock and a hard place sits fudging the fiscal rules

  • U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
  • We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
  • The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 July 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely rebounded in May to grow by 0.1% month-to-month

  • We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
  • We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
  • We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

2 July 2025 UK Monitor Surging food prices will drive up CPI inflation to 3.5% in June

  • We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
  • Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
  • Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

26 June 2025 UK Monitor Payroll data have gone haywire; job growth is likely improving

  • Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
  • May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
  • Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

23 June 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: an August cut to Bank Rate looking more likely

  • Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
  • We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
  • June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

19 June 2025 UK Monitor Inflation ticks down in May but underlying pressures remain strong

  • Inflation fell in May, as the ONS chopped 0.1pp off price growth to correct for the error in April’s data.
  • Headline CPI at 3.4% in May, down from 3.5%, would have been unchanged without the ONS’s adjustment.
  • Energy price increases mean we now expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from 3.6% before.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 June 2025 UK Monitor Long-term inflation expectations are too high

  • Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
  • Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
  • Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 June 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: a data dove-fest, but normal service will be resumed

  • The MPC will be in a pickle if oil prices rise another 5-to-10%, as inflation would peak close to 4%.
  • Payrolls and GDP exaggerate weakness; we expect rebounds in June and May, respectively.
  • We look for 3.4% CPI inflation in May and little change to the MPC’s “gradual and careful” guidance.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

13 June 2025 UK Monitor GDP's April drop was exaggerated; output will rebound

  • The unwinding of tariff and tax-hike front-running dragged down GDP growth in April…
  • …But the monthly fall looks exaggerated to us, so we expect GDP to rebound in May.
  • We thus only shave our forecast for Q2 GDP growth, to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, from 0.3% previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

12 June 2025 UK Monitor MPC preview: on hold, but more open to a cut in August

  • We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s meeting.
  • Payrolls lift the chance of an August cut, but the MPC will likely stick to its “gradual and cautious” guidance.
  • We are comfortable assuming only one more rate cut in this cycle, even if it may now come sooner.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 June 2025 UK Monitor A dovish labour-market report, but jobs will recover

  • May’s huge fall in payrolls looks exaggerated; other indicators, such as redundancies, are improving.
  • Rising LFS employment and falling payrolls point to workers shifting towards self-employment.
  • Wage growth is easing gradually but still remains way above inflation-target-consistent rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 June 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: we still think May inflation will match the MPC's call

  • We expect CPI inflation in May to slow to 3.4%—close to rounding to 3.3%—from 3.5% in April.
  • A correction to Vehicle Excise Duty and airfare falls will be partly offset by strong food and clothes prices.
  • May’s CPI inflation will likely match the MPC’s forecast, and services inflation will slightly exceed it. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 June 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: the belief in quarterly cuts is strong

  • We think the chances of a ‘skip’ at the August MPC meeting are higher than the market assumes.
  • Inflation will likely run above 2% beyond 2026, disinflation has slowed and GDP is trending up solidly.
  • Food for the doves next week, with payroll and GDP falls likely; but Q2 GDP is still set to grow 0.3% q/q.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

6 June 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: ONS error leaves our May call close to rounding to 3.3%

  • The ONS overstated April CPI by 0.1pp because of an error in Vehicle Duty; this will be corrected in May CPI.
  • We adjust our forecasts only fractionally because we had assumed a good chance that VED was wrong.
  • Strong goods prices mean inflation should slow only to 3.4% in May, from the erroneous 3.5% in April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

5 June 2025 UK Monitor MPC far too pessimistic about underlying GDP growth

  • The May PMI shows UK growth still weak, but recovering as April’s tariff panic fades.
  • GDP growth usually far exceeds the PMI steer when uncertainty is high; we look for 0.3% q/q growth in Q2.
  • Services firms squeezing margins holds out the hope of inflation easing, but we think it’s just a blip.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

3 June 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are spending rather than saving

  • Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
  • Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
  • Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

2 June 2025 UK Monitor GDP likely fell 0.1% month-to-month in April

  • We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
  • We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
  • A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

30 May 2025 UK Monitor April administered-price hikes are far from just a one off

  • Our early calculations suggest CPI inflation will fall only slightly in May, to 3.4%.
  • Clothes, computer games, hotel prices and food should mostly offset a fall in travel prices.
  • Duty hikes scheduled for 2026 will support headline inflation; we expect more duty hikes to be announced.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

29 May 2025 UK Monitor Forecast review: stronger growth and sticky inflation take away a cut

  • The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
  • Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
  • Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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