UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line:Retail sales defy the rain to rise in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Surprisingly strong retail sales in September suggest consumers are shrugging off Budget uncertainty.
- Weather and unfavourable seasonals hit September sales, so the trend is better than the headlines.
- Real wage growth and interest rate cuts will help consumer spending support GDP growth in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The October 30 Budget will likely boost government spending more than taxes, raising growth.
- Tax hikes will pay for day-to-day spending, while Ms. Reeves will tweak her fiscal rule to boost investment.
- Markets will be unruffled, so gilt yields could fall as any additional sovereign risk premium unwinds.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rebound strongly in August as rate cuts feed through.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Volatile air fares cut CPI services inflation and will rebound, but Governor Bailey will now look for “aggressive" cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk as the MPC will ignore dodgy job data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The decline in CPI inflation in September likely leaves Governor Bailey primed for “aggressive” rate cuts.
- But the fall in services inflation was exaggerated by volatile airfares; the MPC likely will look through this.
- We still expect the MPC to cut rates quarterly, but a consecutive cut in December is a close call now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The official labour-market data tell a comforting story of improving labour supply and falling wage growth.
- But the LFS data are too unreliable to take seriously, and AWE seems to exaggerate the slowdown in pay.
- The MPC has enough to cut rates in November, but the data fog will restrict easing to once per quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect a stimulatory Budget from Chancellor Rachel Reeves on October 30.
- A growth-boosting Budget should limit the MPC to cutting interest rates only once per quarter.
- Markets will be unruffled by a modest change to Ms. Reeves’ fiscal rules, so gilt yields could fall.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The headline trade deficit narrows because of erratics and metals.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:August’s GDP rebound underwhelmed, cutting our Q3 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP grew 0.2% month-to-month in August as erratic drags on July output unwound.
- Downward revisions to earlier months, however, cut our Q3 GDP forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- That leaves a November MPC rate cut as a racing certainty, even though growth should rebound in Q4.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation surges after MPC rate cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Disposable income surged 2.8% in H1 2024, but consumer spending rose only 0.8%.
- We expect the resulting jump in the saving rate to reverse through 2025, supporting consumption.
- Disposable income growth will slow, but remain solid at 1.3% year-over-year in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales rise solidly, shrugging off Budget uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely fell to 1.9% in September, from 2.2% in August, 0.2pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- All of the undershoot relative to the MPC’s call is accounted for by falling motor fuel prices.
- CPI services inflation will likely slip 0.2pp to 5.4%, as a hotel price jump partially offset a fall in airfares.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- September business surveys suggest a hiring pause ahead of the October 30 Budget.
- We assume unchanged payrolls month-to-month in September and the August jobless rate held at 4.1%.
- The DMP and PAYE pay point to a 0.6% month-to-month private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The REC stays weak, supporting another 25bp rate cut in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- BoE Governor Bailey’s Guardian interview has raised the risk of rate cuts at consecutive MPC meetings.
- We expect the MPC to cut once a quarter, but see four rate cuts in 2025 from three previously.
- We expect higher inflation than the MPC, growth remains solid and MPC guidance is for gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
