Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)

UK Datanote: UK Labour Market Data, May / June 2025

  • In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Official House Price Index, May 2025

  • In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2025

  • In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2025

  • In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, June 2025

  • In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2024

  • In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 July 2025 UK Monitor Job falls easing, and pay growth too high for 2% inflation

  • Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
  • The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
  • We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 July 2025 UK Monitor Most of June's CPI inflation rise was genuine

  • Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
  • We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
  • We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 July 2025 UK Monitor The ONS's BICS survey is a goldmine of information

  • The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
  • The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
  • US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 July 2025 UK Monitor Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth

  • We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
  • Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
  • Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

14 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: underlying growth is improving as uncertainty fades

  • A second consecutive drop in GDP raises the chances that the MPC cuts rate again in August.
  • But GDP should bounce in June, as real estate and car output improves and retail sales gain.
  • We expect May’s payrolls fall to be revised much smaller and CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 September 2024 UK Monitor Government debt on an unsustainable trajectory

  • The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
  • Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
  • Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 July 2025 UK Monitor The housing market rebounds from stamp duty disruption

  • Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
  • The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
  • Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 July 2025 UK Monitor Unsustainable UK fiscal policy makes the market vulnerable

  • The UK’s unsustainable government-debt trajectory leaves gilts vulnerable to selling off.
  • The OBR this week detailed risks to its projection that government debt will hit 270% of GDP in the 2070s.
  • Gilt yields will likely avoid a sharp sell-off as long as  the government sticks to reasonably tight fiscal rules.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 July 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview: 3.5% in June, driven by higher food prices

  • We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in April, driven by food prices.
  • An earlier CPI collection date than our assumption of June 17 would pose downside risk…
  • …Clothes and hotel prices likely strengthened later in the month as temperatures rose.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

8 July 2025 UK Monitor Labour market preview: job growth recovering, pay growth slowing gradually

  • We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
  • Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
  • Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, June 2025

  • In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, June 2025

  • In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, June 2025

  • In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, June 2025

  • In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,