UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: House prices fall in June but returning buyer demand will push up prices soon.
- In one line: Better balanced growth after revisions bodes well.
HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE IN APRIL...
- ...BUT THE RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
- A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
- Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
- The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.
- U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
- We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
- The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
- …BUT ONLY ONE MORE CUT THIS YEAR IS THE RIGHT CALL
- We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
- We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
- Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
- Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
- In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.
- In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.
- In one line:Public finances deteriorate in May, tax-hike speculation to mount over the summer.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence inches up, but it will be tested over the summer.
- In one line: Rates and guidance unchanged in June, but a dovish tilt to the minutes.
- In one line:Retail sales tank in May but will rebound.
- In one line: Activity rises and price pressures fall, but geopolitical stress a rising worry.
- Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
- We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
- June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.
- Inflation fell in May, as the ONS chopped 0.1pp off price growth to correct for the error in April’s data.
- Headline CPI at 3.4% in May, down from 3.5%, would have been unchanged without the ONS’s adjustment.
- Energy price increases mean we now expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from 3.6% before.
- In one line: Employment growth eases according to the REC, but the worst of the jobs slowdown appears over.
- In one line:GDP falls in April but it will rebound as tax-hike-induced effects fade.
