UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Official retail sales will rise at a healthy clip in July.
- In one line: A stabilising labour market and elevated pay growth constrain the MPC.
- A tight vote split and cautious guidance make the MPC’s August cut to Bank Rate hawkish.
- Inflation averaging 3.7% for the rest of the year means August’s rate cut will be the last in 2025.
- The data-flow will firm up this week, to show GDP growth rebounding and payrolls barely falling.
HOUSE PRICES REBOUND IN MAY...
- ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN H2
- The MPC cut by 25bp but was much more hawkish, with a tighter-than-expected 5-to-4 vote in favour.
- The MPC added more cautious guidance, lifted its inflation forecasts and said upside risks had risen.
- So, we maintain our forecast for no more rate cuts this year, which the market moved closer to pricing.
- In one line: Car registrations will bounce back as borrowing costs fall and the market normalises after duty hikes.
- In one line: Enough for the MPC to cut, but inflation is proving persistent.
- In one line: The PMI should gradually improve as borrowing costs fall and the Government spends big.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuels and airfares rise.
- CPI collected close to school vacations should boost travel prices, while domestic hotel prices likely rose.
- We expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September and still be at 3.7% in December.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, as motor fuel prices increase.
- We see upside risk to our goods price call after strong BRC Shop Price inflation and flash Eurozone CPI.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, up from 3.8% previously, as food price inflation rises.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity should gradually recover as tariff-uncertainty fades.
- In one line: The housing market recovery is underway.
- Underlying growth is fine, helped by consumers; we look for GDP to grow by 1.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Payroll falls are a risk, but we think they exaggerate job losses, and in any case vacancies are stabilising.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 4.0% in September, so the MPC will have to pause after it cuts in August.
- In one line:Retail sales are trending up solidly.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence knocked by inflation and tax hike speculation.
- In one line: Consumers still look set to support GDP growth in H2.
- Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
- A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
- Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios.
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp on August 7 in response to weak payrolls.
- We expect two votes for a 50bp reduction, four for a 25bp cut and three for no change.
- The MPC will likely maintain “gradual and careful” guidance, but may need to mention neutral.
- We reiterate our Q2 GDP growth call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter after retail sales improved in June.
- Over-50s’ confidence disconnected from spending, possibly as political views drive sentiment more.
- Under-50s are optimistic, consistent with retail volumes growing by 2% year-over-year.
