UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line:Better-than-expected growth should reduce recession worries and suggests the PMI is exaggerating economic weakness.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Tax hikes and tariff uncertainty kept UK growth weak at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- But the economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% monthly gain in December.
- Strong consumer services spending suggests rapid real wage growth will help GDP rebound in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- December’s payrolls fall should be revised up, and we look for a 20K month-to-month drop in January.
- The official unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in December, and is trending up gradually.
- Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in December, keeping the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Stronger ONS population forecasts should boost potential output growth by 0.1pp per year.
- The OBR will likely cut productivity growth forecasts, leaving potential growth unchanged.
- We estimate the Chancellor has about £5B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Rebounding airfares, and private-school fee hikes, will drive up CPI inflation to 2.8% in January.
- CPI services inflation should surge to 5.2% in January, matching the MPC’s updated forecasts.
- Risks lie to the upside of our forecast for CPI inflation to reach 3.4% in April and 3.5% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market improved marginally in January but remains hobbled according to the REC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We still expect three rate cuts in total this year—two more—after the surprisingly dovish MPC voted to cut.
- Vote splits are a poor guide to subsequent decisions, while the MPC’s inflation forecast was hawkish.
- We expect Catherine Mann to explain this week that she was calling for a one-off rate adjustment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction PMI tanks, but was driven by erratic falls and should improve.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Payroll tax hikes boost inflation and cut growth; the MPC will have to plot a middle path.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC’s words, forecasts and pay survey point to only one-to-two more rate cuts this year.
- Rate-setters are guiding to “careful and gradual” cuts, and placing more weight on their hawkish scenarios.
- So, we think the market has gone too far in pricing a better-than-even chance of three more cuts in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Private car registrations fall eases in January; the trend should improve in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Surging uncertainty and payroll taxes are keeping the economy close to stagnation, according to the PMI.
- But the PMI also signals underlying services inflation accelerating back above 5%.
- The MPC will cut Bank Rate today but will give cautious guidance as it balances growth and inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to stagnate in December, putting growth at -0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- Industrial production likely fell, while we expect healthcare and education to detract from growth.
- A small upward revision to November’s GDP would be enough to avoid GDP falling in Q4 as a whole.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: President Trump’s tariffs will snuff out a nascent rebound in the PMI.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We think President Trump’s tariffs, by fracturing supply chains, will be stagflationary for the UK.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 2.8% in January, 0.3pp more than the MPC expected.
- Goods inflation will slow, but airfares and private-school fees will boost services inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation is trending higher despite the weak monthly gain in Nationwide's index.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Payroll-tax hikes are driving growth down and inflation up to a greater extent than we expected.
- We cut our 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% year-over-year, from 1.3%, but raise inflation by 10bp to 3.1%.
- We retain our long-held call for three cuts to Bank Rate in 2025, with the first coming on Thursday.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Easing consumer saving should support demand, but tax hikes hit business investment.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PAYROLL TAXES CUT GROWTH AND BOOST INFLATION
- …THE MPC WILL BE ABLE TO CUT RATES THREE TIMES IN 2025
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
