UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- Q3 growth undershooting the MPC’s forecast all but seals a December rate cut…
- …But GDP will likely rebound strongly in October and November as erratic industrial drags unwind.
- Growth is far from spectacular, but it seems to be trended only a little below the UK’s potential.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.5% in September, but only just on the rounding.
- Utility-price and airfares base effects cut inflation, but we face unusually large two-sided risks this month.
- Quarterly public rent resets, foreign-student tuition-fee hikes and food prices could surprise our forecast.
- In one line: Fiscal worries begin to weigh on consumer spending.
- The MPC signalled a December rate cut but uncertainty about how many more.
- We look for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter Q3 GDP growth and stable payrolls, in data published this week.
- CPI inflation should drop to 3.5% in October—due November 19—0.1pp below the MPC’s call.
- In one line: Dovish hold, so we are comfortable with our call for a December cut.
- In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.
- In one line: Predictable correction after the strongest September in five years, the underlying trend is up.
- The MPC’s new guidance leaves us comfortable reiterating our call for a December rate cut.
- Rate-setters also point to a slower pace of cuts next year as Bank Rate approaches neutral…
- ...And room for only one more cut after December, unless GDP growth turns out weaker-than-expected.
- In one line: Reopening after the cyber attack boosts the manufacturing PMI, but the outlook remains challenging.
- We expect Budget tax hikes and spending cuts of £40B to deliver double the previous fiscal headroom.
- The devil is in the detail for the MPC, however, which likely needs to wait and see the Budget before acting.
- Firms are brushing off tax speculation; the PMI signals growth close to potential and stabilising jobs.
- We retain our Q3 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, as the activity data have held firm...
- ...But softer-than-expected inflation means we have brought forward our call for a rate cut to December.
- We are waiting for further information on the Budget before forecasting an additional cut to Bank Rate.
- In one line: Rising mortgage approvals and solid credit flows suggest confident consumers.
- Markets need to prepare for major changes to the MPC’s flagship publications, the MPR and minutes…
- …Chief Economist Pill outlined the changes, which amount to downplaying the central forecasts further.
- A manifesto-breaking income-tax hike is more likely, with rumours of a larger OBR productivity downgrade.
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its meeting on November 6.
- The vote is a close call, but we see the MPC teeing up a cut in December with tweaks to guidance.
- The inflation outlook is better but still not great, with plenty of signals warranting caution.
- In one line:Retail sales should continue to rise despite Budget uncertainty.
- In one line: Consumers are resilient in the face of tax hike rumours.
- In one line: Growth to hold up in Q4 despite Budget uncertainty, but softening inflation indicators gives the MPC doves hope.
- September inflation undershooting consensus pulled forward our rate-cut call to December, from February.
- We still think the MPC will skip November, especially with growth data last week showing resilience.
- Little data this week to shift November MPC pricing, but the BRC Shop Price Index will likely accelerate.
- In one line: The trade deficit is trending sideways as gas prices keep import costs elevated.
- In one line:Growth runs close to potential, limiting the emergence of spare capacity.
