UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.
- In one line: Predictable correction after the strongest September in five years, the underlying trend is up.
- In one line: Reopening after the cyber attack boosts the manufacturing PMI, but the outlook remains challenging.
- We expect Budget tax hikes and spending cuts of £40B to deliver double the previous fiscal headroom.
- The devil is in the detail for the MPC, however, which likely needs to wait and see the Budget before acting.
- Firms are brushing off tax speculation; the PMI signals growth close to potential and stabilising jobs.
- We retain our Q3 GDP growth forecast of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, as the activity data have held firm...
- ...But softer-than-expected inflation means we have brought forward our call for a rate cut to December.
- We are waiting for further information on the Budget before forecasting an additional cut to Bank Rate.
- In one line: Rising mortgage approvals and solid credit flows suggest confident consumers.
- Markets need to prepare for major changes to the MPC’s flagship publications, the MPR and minutes…
- …Chief Economist Pill outlined the changes, which amount to downplaying the central forecasts further.
- A manifesto-breaking income-tax hike is more likely, with rumours of a larger OBR productivity downgrade.
- We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its meeting on November 6.
- The vote is a close call, but we see the MPC teeing up a cut in December with tweaks to guidance.
- The inflation outlook is better but still not great, with plenty of signals warranting caution.
- In one line:Retail sales should continue to rise despite Budget uncertainty.
- In one line: Consumers are resilient in the face of tax hike rumours.
- In one line: Growth to hold up in Q4 despite Budget uncertainty, but softening inflation indicators gives the MPC doves hope.
- September inflation undershooting consensus pulled forward our rate-cut call to December, from February.
- We still think the MPC will skip November, especially with growth data last week showing resilience.
- Little data this week to shift November MPC pricing, but the BRC Shop Price Index will likely accelerate.
- In one line: The trade deficit is trending sideways as gas prices keep import costs elevated.
- In one line:Growth runs close to potential, limiting the emergence of spare capacity.
- In one line:Borrowing overshoot shrinks but the Chancellor still has to raise taxes or cut spending by at least £25B.
- Plenty of small caveats suggest we treat the downside inflation surprise with a little caution…
- ...But the dovish news was too widespread to ignore, so we cut our forecasts and see a December rate cut.
- We still think the MPC will skip a November cut, with inflation nearly double its target.
- The ONS revised down borrowing by £4.2B, as an error in the collection of VAT receipts was corrected…
- …But borrowing is still £7.2B higher than the OBR forecast for the first half of fiscal year 2025/26.
We expect £33B of tax hikes and spending cuts in the Budget, back-loaded to 2029/30.
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- We have thrown in the towel and include in our forecasts a cut to energy bills in November’s Budget.
- All told, we lower our inflation forecast by 16bp for one year from April 2026.
- We struggle to see the Chancellor freezing fuel duty completely though, given the £5B-per-year cost.
- We now expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in February; previously we expected no change.
- Our rate call change is tactical—five MPC doves seem keen—as sticky inflation requires caution.
- Our hotel price tracker suggests limited impact from the tube strike, but the risk is for a 4.1% inflation print.
- GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in August, after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in July.
- GDP growth will match our call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, 0.4%.
- Underlying GDP growth has slowed due to Budget uncertainty but is still close to potential.
