UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- The bar to data preventing a December MPC rate cut is now very high, in our view…
- …But we expect an extended pause after a December cut, with inflation and growth likely to hold up.
- The Budget will likely be less disinflationary and less credible after Ms. Reeves ditched an income-tax hike.
- In one line: Enough for a December cut, but also enough to keep the MPC cautious about the pace of subsequent cuts.
- In one line: Tax-hike speculation to continue dragging on house prices in Q4.
- October headline inflation slowing in line with the MPC’s call keeps a December rate cut nailed on.
- We think erratic factors contributed to the decline in services inflation, and it will partly rebound.
- So, we forecast that CPI inflation will hold at 3.6% in November and 3.7% in December.
- Our inflation forecasts factor in a 5% utility price cut in April and maintaining the 5p emergency fuel-duty cut.
- Rumoured Budget measures could cut 2026 inflation 40bp more than we assume, but will be hard to afford.
- The Budget will likely affect inflation little via demand, after the Chancellor ditched an income tax hike.
- In one line:Weak growth seals a December rate cut, but be careful because underlying growth is better than the headline.
- In one line: Car production shutdown tanks exports, but that will unwind in October and November.
- In one line: REC survey shows stabilising jobs market, suggesting weak official payrolls will be revised better.
- In one line: The spectacle of months of tax speculation takes its toll, but house price inflation should recover after the Budget.
- The Chancellor ditching an income-tax hike means more back-loaded and shakier fiscal consolidation.
- The government will also likely have to pare back its plans to cut energy utility prices by £200 per year.
- Back-loaded and smaller tax hikes reduce the need for MPC rate cuts in 2026 and raise gilt premia.
- Weak payrolls and a fall in GDP in September make a December rate cut highly likely…
- …But we hold off forecasting a rate cut early next year, as the underlying picture is better than the headlines.
- October inflation will likely fall to 3.5%, but the Budget looks less disinflationary after a political storm.
- Q3 growth undershooting the MPC’s forecast all but seals a December rate cut…
- …But GDP will likely rebound strongly in October and November as erratic industrial drags unwind.
- Growth is far from spectacular, but it seems to be trended only a little below the UK’s potential.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.5% in September, but only just on the rounding.
- Utility-price and airfares base effects cut inflation, but we face unusually large two-sided risks this month.
- Quarterly public rent resets, foreign-student tuition-fee hikes and food prices could surprise our forecast.
- In one line: Fiscal worries begin to weigh on consumer spending.
- The MPC signalled a December rate cut but uncertainty about how many more.
- We look for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter Q3 GDP growth and stable payrolls, in data published this week.
- CPI inflation should drop to 3.5% in October—due November 19—0.1pp below the MPC’s call.
- In one line: Dovish hold, so we are comfortable with our call for a December cut.
- In one line: Firms brush off Budget uncertainty, and steady growth should keep the MPC on hold.
- In one line: Predictable correction after the strongest September in five years, the underlying trend is up.
- The MPC’s new guidance leaves us comfortable reiterating our call for a December rate cut.
- Rate-setters also point to a slower pace of cuts next year as Bank Rate approaches neutral…
- ...And room for only one more cut after December, unless GDP growth turns out weaker-than-expected.
- In one line: Reopening after the cyber attack boosts the manufacturing PMI, but the outlook remains challenging.
