UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
- …BUT ONLY ONE MORE CUT THIS YEAR IS THE RIGHT CALL
- We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
- We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
- Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
- Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
- In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.
- In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.
- In one line:Public finances deteriorate in May, tax-hike speculation to mount over the summer.
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence inches up, but it will be tested over the summer.
- In one line: Rates and guidance unchanged in June, but a dovish tilt to the minutes.
- In one line:Retail sales tank in May but will rebound.
- In one line: Activity rises and price pressures fall, but geopolitical stress a rising worry.
