UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)
- In one line: Manufacturing orders tick up and price pressures fall in February, but the sector remains weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Firms are adjusting to payroll-tax hikes across several dimensions, rather than just slashing employment.
- More firms say they will raise prices than cut employment in response to increased NICs.
- Accordingly, we think the weakest surveys of job growth are exaggerating the employment slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect slower, and fewer, rate cuts than the median market participant.
- We expect higher CPI inflation than the consensus and assume a higher neutral interest rate.
- An upside skew to markets’ inflation forecasts likely drives elevated nominal estimates of neutral.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Little sign of consumer gloom in the money and credit data, as households cut back on saving…
- ...Consumers cut real liquid assets by £0.3B month-to-month in December, and mortgage approvals rose.
- Payroll-tax hikes hit capex, however, with corporate net external finance falling in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- House price inflation will accelerate after posting a gain of just 0.1% month-to-month in November.
- Forward-looking indicators point to house price inflation reaching 5% year-over-year in the spring…
- …But sticky borrowing costs and tax changes will cap annual growth in house prices at 4% in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing orders bounce back, but activity remains chronically weak.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Monthly insolvencies have fallen back towards their pre-pandemic trend.
- The insolvency rate, which controls for the size of the economy, is almost at pre-pandemic levels.
- Even modest GDP growth will keep a lid on insolvency growth in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Surging gilt yields have been driven mainly by a global repricing, rather than idiosyncratic UK sovereign risk.
- We expect gilt yields to fall during 2025 as the MPC cuts interest rates and fiscal worries fade.
- The Chancellor will plan for weaker public spending to offset higher debt interest costs.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We cut our Q4 growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, following a string of weak data.
- The labour market remains tight, and wage growth is still running above target-consistent levels.
- The MPC will proceed cautiously and cut three times in 2025: in February, May and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Output and inflation head in opposite directions, leaving the MPC with a difficult trade-off.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely rose to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The rise will be driven by Ofgem’s 9.5% energy utility price-cap hike and a small rise in services inflation.
- Rebounding airfares and hotel price inflation should boost services, but both are highly uncertain.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- A gently easing labour market will allow the MPC to keep cutting rates only gradually.
- The unemployment rate surged in September, but that was data noise; the trend remains a slow rise.
- Wage growth is still proving stubborn, as the labour market remains tight, even if it has loosened.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- US tariffs of 10% on imports would have a trivial direct impact on UK GDP.
- But the UK would be highly exposed to global trade disruption after likely retaliation against US tariffs.
- Tariffs would be stagflationary for the UK, causing the MPC to cut interest rates more slowly.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s promise of higher tariffs and tax cuts should prove stagflationary for the UK.
- The MPC will focus on the inflation boost, because inflation expectations are elevated.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 2.2% in October, from 1.7% in September, as utility prices increase.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The headline composite PMI fell in October, and is consistent with 0.2% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Uncertainty around the Budget, energy price rises and the external environment weakened sentiment.
- We think the PMI will rebound, as the MPC cuts rates, while Budget uncertainty has faded.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The official house price index rebounded in August, rising 1.0% month-to-month.
- The Chancellor’s stimulatory Budget will prevent mortgage rates from falling much further.
- But the drop in mortgage rates thus far means house prices should gain 4.5% year-over-year in December.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote eight-to-one to cut Bank Rate by 25bp at next Thursday’s policy meeting.
- Growth, inflation and crucially CPI services inflation have undershot rate-setters’ expectations.
- The MPC will open the option of consecutive cuts, but higher forecast inflation will keep it cautious.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The Chancellor used most of the extra borrowing capacity permitted by her new rules to spend more now.
- This loosening, and the extra labour costs for firms, will lift inflation, forcing the MPC to ease slowly.
- Headroom is tiny, so taxes might rise again if growth flags or interest rates exceed the OBR’s forecast.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Households’ liquid assets increased in September, but we think consumers are content at current levels.
- Lump-sum repayments are falling as borrowing costs tick down, and consumer caution remains low.
- Mortgage approvals have grown strongly, reaching their highest level since August 2022.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
