UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Weekly Monitor Samuel Tombs
- In one line: Supply chain disruptions threaten to compound the demand-driven downturn in output.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Households won’t stay this cautious for long.
Samuel TombsUK
- People’s optimism in their personal financial outlook recovered in January to its long-run average.
- Confidence isn’t always a reliable spending bellwether, though there’s little reason to expect it to mislead now.
- Governments, however, don’t always get the credit for improving economies, as the Tories discovered in 1997.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Falling interest payments create scope for tax cuts which the gilt market can tolerate.
Samuel TombsUK
- Retail sales fell by 0.9% q/q in Q4, but spending on services fared better; total spending likely fell only slightly.
- We judge households have finished re-accumulating the savings buffer they lost in 2022...
- ...So brisk growth in real disposable income this year should filter through to spending; the MPC won't panic.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Slowing trend in the all-items index maintained, despite December’s rebound.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The recent slowdown in wage growth looks real, but the MPC will remain anxious about the near-term outlook.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP is on course to drop marginally in Q4, despite the rebound in November...
- ...The composite PMI picked up in December, but the retail, construction and health sectors all likely struggled.
- A recovery, however, should take hold soon; we look for 0.7% year-over-year growth in GDP in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The underlying trend still looks flat, but a genuine recovery will take hold this year.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Still supporting the case for rate cuts, but wage growth likely will remain stronger than it implies.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The trend in GDP was flat in 2023; expect a material improvement in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The consolidation is progressing well enough for modest tax cuts in the Budget.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Sharp decline in inflation not merely due to some of its noisy components.
Samuel TombsUK
- The composite PMI rose in December to a six-month high; consumers’ confidence is near a two-year high.
- This pick-up reflects rising real household disposable income, and possibly slowing savings replenishment.
- The MPC, however, needn’t stay very restrictive; the job market is loosening, and inflation pressures are fading.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Further recovery should ease recession fears.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Continued hawkishness suggests May still is the earliest plausible date for the first rate cut.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: A broad-based drop, but expect a recovery in the final two months of 2023.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: The trend in wage growth is weakening, but not as dramatically as October’s data imply.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Consistent with unemployment rising more quickly than the MPC expects.
Samuel TombsUK
- In one line: Consistent with a modest revival in retail sales; expect a fuller recovery in 2024.
Samuel TombsUK
