UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September

• In one line: CBI points to struggling manufacturing but it is volatile, watch the stronger PMI instead.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK

2 September 2024 EZ Monitor ECB September rate cut is a go; October easing growing in favour

• EZ inflation fell to its lowest since July 2021 in August, marginally above the ECB’s target...
• ...The Bank will find it hard to justify its current restrictive stance, especially with wage growth easing.
• We think a September rate cut is more likely than not and keep our October cut in too, for now.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, August

• In one line: CBI orders and prices rebound as expected in August.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK

12 August 2024 EZ Monitor Is the Taylor Rule back as a forecasting tool in the Eurozone?

• The link between the ECB’s policy rate and the Taylor Rule, which broke after the GFC, is reasserting itself.
• A Taylor Rule with inflation expectations suggests the ECB is behind the curve on easing.
• The model also indicates that the policy rate won’t fall as much as the consensus expects.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July

• In one line: CBI orders and prices fall in July, but both should rebound in August.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June

• In one line: The long decline in core goods inflation has no further to run.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March

In one line: Sign of Life. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)UK