UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Chartbook
- Retail sales were boosted by fuel purchases in March, which will unwind as demand normalises...
- ...but we see tentative signs that households are willing to reduce their high saving rate to smooth spending…
- ...and the GfK’s major purchases balance held firm in April, suggesting that retail sales can grind higher.
- We expect the MPC to vote nine-to-zero to hold Bank Rate, with risks of one or two votes for a cut.
- The MPC is likely to keep its guidance little changed, emphasising that it stands ready to act if needed.
- We expect the MPC to raise its 2026 inflation forecast but cut the two-year ahead number to 1.9%.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices, driven by oil-price rises, pushed inflation up to 3.3% in March.
- Core inflation slid by 10bp, but the mix of inflation was hawkish, in our view.
- Underlying services prices rose the most three-months-on-three-months in almost a year.
- Payrolls were stable in March, despite the Iran war, once we adjust for likely revisions.
- Unemployment corrected for last August’s volatile rise and suggests the MPC was too pessimistic.
- Slowing pay growth was dovish, but PAYE median pay and surveys suggest the official data have undershot.
- PM Starmer is under further pressure following news that Peter Mandelson ‘failed’ security vetting.
- A leadership contest remains a distinct possibility and would likely increase the focus on debt sustainability.
- The war in Iran will likely lead to a small loosening of the fiscal stance, but costly measures will be avoided.
- February GDP exaggerates the growth trend, because of erratic gains in a number of sectors.
- But growth was surprisingly strong even if we strip out the noise; the economy was recovering.
- We now look for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices account for almost all of the increase in inflation.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 3.5% in September, from 3.7% previously, as oil prices have fallen back.
- Borrowing costs have jumped since our last gilt market update, as the Iran war boosts inflation fears.
- We think yields have overshot fair pricing and will fall, although more so at the short than long end.
- Higher-for-longer oil prices and rising political risk mean the curve will steepen in 2026.
- We expect the final payrolls reading to show a 7K month-to-month drop in March.
- A small gain in LFS employment means the unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.2%.
- Wage inflation will drop close to the BoE Staff estimate of ‘inflation-target-consistent’ levels.
- Industrial production likely dropped in February, driven by falls in mining output and energy supply…
- ...But strong services activity will boost output growth, leaving GDP on track to rise by 0.2% in Q1.
- The fragile US-Iran ceasefire reduces the chances of a hike to Bank Rate this year, but uncertainties remain.
- Surging fuel costs and a pullback in spending led to a drop in the March PMI.
- We stick to our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect the MPC to place more weight on rocketing input costs rather than slowing demand.
- The housing market was solid before the energy price shock, but activity will grind lower in 2026.
- Measures of supply are ticking up, which will put further pressure on prices.
- We look for house price inflation of 1.0% in Q4 2026, down from our previous forecast of 3.0%.
- Unrevised GDP growth of 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4 2025 confirms the pre-Budget hit to activity.
- The saving rate rose to 9.9% in Q4, from 9.1% in Q3, showing consumers can smooth spending in 2026.
- The current account deficit widened in Q4 and will remain weak in 2026 as energy prices jump.
- Healthy credit flows and stable saving patterns suggest confident consumers.
- The activity data will slow in the coming months, but consumers can use savings to smooth spending.
- Business lending was rising, on the back of lower policy uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts.
- Guarded language from the MPC suggests some pushback against market pricing of three hikes in 2026.
- But rate-setters must be wary, given de-anchored inflation expectations and low trust in the central bank.
- The Spring Statement outlines high levels of issuance, which will continue to push up the neutral rate.
- Headline inflation was unchanged at 3.0% in February, as a rise in core CPI offset weaker services inflation.
- Services inflation above the MPC’s forecast will leave rate-setters more worried about second-round effects…
- Inflation will trough at 2.8% in April before rising back up to 3.7% in November.
IRAN WAR RAISES INFLATION AND CUTS GROWTH...
- …MPC WILL HAVE TO STAY ON HOLD
- The PMI points to GDP growth easing in Q1, but still broadly in line with rate-setters’ expectations.
- We stick with our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q1, but with downside risks to that call.
- The MPC will wait for more data before making judgements on how the war is impacting the economy.
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
