UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Chartbook
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
- We expect the data flow to soften as the implications of the war in Iran feed into surveys.
- But the PMI held up for two months after Russia’s invasion in 2022; the housing market will react faster.
- The MPC’s focus on spare capacity means the job data will be crucial for forecasting the path for rates.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
- Erratic falls in equipment manufacturing and mining kept GDP unchanged month-to-month in January.
- We lower our forecast for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3% previously.
- War in Iran is a serious downside risk to activity, but we expect slower growth rather than a sudden stop.
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with Ms. Dhingra and Mr. Taylor voting for a cut.
- The data flow has been slightly dovish lately, but war in Iran has ripped up the ‘disinflation’ playbook.
- Guidance will shift towards giving rate-setters the option to hike in 2026, if required.
- We plot how the 2026 energy surge, and position of the UK economy, compares to 2022.
- Oil and natural-gas prices have so far risen by a similar percentage to 2022, but may be fading sooner.
- More spare capacity exists and M4 growth is slower than in 2022, but inflation expectations are deanchored.
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
- President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.
- We expect inflation to trough at 2.6% in June and peak at 3.4% in December, given energy futures yesterday.
- We expect the flash payroll estimate to show a 5K month-to-month fall in February.
- Private-sector wage growth should tick up in January, and surveys suggest stabilisation ahead.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.9% in February, from 3.0% in January.
- A fall in motor fuel prices, slowing rent inflation, and a drop in live music and hotel prices drag inflation down.
- Commodity price rises mean inflation will sink to only 2.4% in June and rebound to 3.0% in September.
- Industrial production likely rebounded in January, since manufacturing activity continues to recover.
- Surging A&E attendances indicate upside risk to services output from healthcare activity.
- Output in the construction sector will fall again, as the wet weather dampened activity.
- We now expect a rate cut in April, compared to March previously, after another surge in commodity prices.
- Our forecast today is a holding position as we wait to see where gas prices settle at the end of the week.
- The Chancellor boosted her headroom in the Spring Statement, but bigger challenges await in the autumn.
- Energy-price rises, if sustained, would add 0.2-to-0.3pp to UK inflation in July, and 0.2pp at year-end.
- The market’s 50:50 probability of a March cut looks fair in these early hours after events in the Middle East.
- But two MPC rate cuts this year are unlikely if energy prices drive inflation to re-accelerate in H2 2026.
- House prices rose by a respectable 2.4% on average in Q4, down only slightly from 2.5% in Q4 2026.
- 2025’s stamp-duty hike and mansion tax are weighing on house prices in London and the South East.
- A sharp drop in household inflation expectations in February seals a March rate cut.
- The latest public finances data will support the Chancellor by showing borrowing below profile.
- But the headline figures flatter the overall picture, where spending pressures are higher.
- We expect the OBR to revise down borrowing in 2030/31 slightly, though policy U-turns are mounting.
- A surge in retail sales growth in January points to upside risk to GDP growth in Q1.
- The PMI suggests that business sentiment is also improving as policy uncertainty wanes.
- But the dismal weather so far this year means we hold fire on raising our Q1 growth forecast from 0.3%.
- A jump in payroll-measured productivity has coincided with the proliferation of AI tools.
- Studies link AI exposure and weak hiring in some sectors, but the impact is tiny at a macro level, so far.
- The impact of AI will build over time, but the general equilibrium effects on the economy are hard to call.
- Insolvencies fell year-over-year in January despite months of political chaos causing weaker growth.
- Retail insolvencies have risen, likely as 2025’s payroll-tax and minimum-wage hikes hit the sector hard.
- But overall business failures should drop a little in 2026, as growth recovers and borrowing costs fall.
- Energy, education, food, rents and airfares cut inflation to 3.0% in January, and further falls are likely.
- But services inflation exceeded the MPC’s forecast by 30bp, and underlying inflation accelerated.
- A March rate cut remains highly likely despite the inflation miss, as rate-setters focus on unemployment.
- Jobless rate hitting a 5-year high of 5.2% in December makes a March rate cut more likely.
- But payrolls beat consensus and have nearly stabilised, while redundancies appear to have peaked.
- Private pay rose by the most month-to-month since April and will likely exceed the MPC’s January call.
- We reflect on our calls, and what we should learn from the misses, in our 500th UK Economic Monitor.
- Solid growth and persistent inflation in 2025 panned out, but job growth was weaker than we expected.
- Our three key themes now? The high neutral rate; structural labour-market shifts; persistent inflation.
