UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- We have nudged down our Q3 GDP growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter after GDP flatlined in July.
- We lift our 2025 inflation forecast as we add in above inflation duty hikes and private school fee rises.
- We expect a 25bp rate cut in November and three more in 2025, as the MPC guides to “gradual cuts”.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A suite of Taylor rules forecasts Bank Rate between 3.4% and 4.3% at the end of 2025.
- These forecasts are based on MPC inflation and growth projections, which we think are too low.
- Policy rules that are more robust to uncertainty about the neutral rate suggest more gradual cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A Chancellor scrabbling for tax revenue will likely turn to alcohol and tobacco duty hikes.
- We expect Ms. Reeves to raise tobacco duty—by 4% above RPI inflation—and alcohol duty in December.
- Our forecasts include a 10% private-school fee hike, split September 2024, January and September 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect house price inflation to accelerate to 4.5% year-over-year in December.
- MPC rate cuts, solid wage growth and low unemployment will drive that housing rebound.
- Forward-looking indicators suggest upside risk; they point to 6% year-over-year house price gains.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The composite PMI decline and drop in output price inflation raise the potential for faster rate cuts.
- But the PMI remains consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth…
- ...While still-strong forward-looking sub-balances suggest the headline PMI will rebound.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect payback for the 1.0% month-to-month August gain in retail sales, boosted by warm weather.
- But look through the volatile sector detail, and retail sales volumes are trending up as real wages rise.
- Consumer confidence, likely depressed by rising inflation expectations, poses a downside risk.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC kept Bank Rate on hold, as expected, but the 8-to-1 vote was less dovish than expected.
- The MPC signalled a gradual rate-cutting cycle, which suggests to us one cut per quarter.
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in November and again in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Underlying services inflation pressures continue to ease, so the MPC will cut rates again this year.
- But August’s CPI inflation gives the MPC little reason to rush to cut today; it will wait until November.
- Core CPI inflation jumped to 3.6% in August, which we think was close to the MPC’s expectation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Consumer confidence has provided a reliable signal of consumer spending for 50 years.
- Confidence points to consumption strengthening and unemployment falling.
- Consumers’ saving intentions are high but they provide little useful signal about actual saving.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Better anchored inflation expectations have helped deliver a more benign disinflation than feared.
- But the MPC should retain some caution as long-run household inflation expectations are a little elevated...
- …satisfaction in the BoE remains low and households are more attentive to inflation than before Covid.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to vote 7-to-2 to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s policy meeting.
- Rate-setters will note slowing inflation supports faster cuts but a solid labour market suggests caution.
- The MPC will signal further rate cuts are likely, but that policy will need to stay sufficiently restrictive.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A second consecutive month of unchanged GDP gives little reason for worry.
- GDP was depressed by erratic sectors; they will rebound, and surveys point to robust growth.
- So, the MPC will still wait until November to cut interest rates again despite the downside GDP surprise.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Job growth slowed in H1, but surveys suggest hiring is improving, while redundancies remain low.
- Pay growth continues to ease, but less than AWE shows, and it remains too high for comfort.
- The labour market is loosening gradually but is far from collapsing; the MPC can afford to wait.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- CPI inflation likely rose to 2.3% in August, from 2.2% in July, 0.1pp below the MPC’s forecast.
- Airfares will rebound from July’s slowdown, which was driven by the early CPI collection date.
- Almost anything is possible with hotel prices, but they likely fell less than in August 2023.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the Chancellor to raise taxes by £10B per year, only partially offsetting higher spending.
- So, the OBR will likely increase its forecasts for government borrowing over the next five years.
- Ms. Reeves likely will meet her fiscal rules by changing the definition of government debt used.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.2% month-to-month in July, thanks to retail sales growth and fewer strike days.
- Professional services are the wild card for July; we make a conservative growth assumption.
- Our Q3 growth forecast is close to rounding up to 0.5% quarter-to-quarter, above the MPC’s 0.4%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The final August PMI signals Q3 GDP growth of 0.4-to-0.5% quarter-to-quarter.
- The PMI indicates falling inflation, but rising margins and job growth will keep price rises elevated.
- The MPC has little reason to rush through another rate cut this month; it will wait until November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The July jobless rate should fall to 4.1%, with a risk of a 4.0% print, while LFS job growth should accelerate.
- We look for August PAYE employment to gain 30K month-to-month.
- We assume 0.5% month-to-month AWE growth in July, and a 0.1pp upward revision to growth in May.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Higher core goods and services inflation in August will raise CPI inflation to 2.3%, from 2.2% in July.
- Goods inflation should tick up as used car prices rise and furniture prices rebound from July discounts.
- We look for CPI inflation to be 0.1pp less than the MPC expects, and services 0.2pp lower.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
