UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- The activity data since our last forecast review have been solid, implying little damage from the Iran war...
- ...So firms’ pricing pressure looks strong to us, and the soft data point to a quick passthrough of higher costs.
- We now look for two 25bp hikes to Bank Rate this year, with three cuts to come across 2027 and 2028.
- The MPC’s decision to hold rates, and the vote split, were in line with consensus.
- The MPC’s guidance suggests to us a couple of rate hikes this year, fewer than the market had priced.
- Mr. Bailey’s communication in the press conference jarred with MPC scenarios, so we detail our take.
- Household inflation expectations eased—although were still high—in April, according to YouGov.
- But we think the MPC can take limited comfort, because expectations still look de-anchored.
- Consumers are more attentive to inflation now than before 2022, raising risks of second-round effects.
- The latest public finances data show cumulative borrowing for 2025/26 close to the OBR’s forecasts.
- But that respite will be short-lived, as the war in Iran increases borrowing in 2026/27 by about £19B.
- The Chancellor’s headroom is less affected, as long as gilt yields and inflation fall back in future years.
- Retail sales were boosted by fuel purchases in March, which will unwind as demand normalises...
- ...but we see tentative signs that households are willing to reduce their high saving rate to smooth spending…
- ...and the GfK’s major purchases balance held firm in April, suggesting that retail sales can grind higher.
- Risks are skewed to a hawkish hold by the Bank of England as the DMP shows rising price pressures.
- A slew of surveys last week suggests inflation risks are more prominent than growth weakness.
- Bank Rate expectations are moving with oil prices rather than economic data.
- We expect the MPC to vote nine-to-zero to hold Bank Rate, with risks of one or two votes for a cut.
- The MPC is likely to keep its guidance little changed, emphasising that it stands ready to act if needed.
- We expect the MPC to raise its 2026 inflation forecast but cut the two-year ahead number to 1.9%.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices, driven by oil-price rises, pushed inflation up to 3.3% in March.
- Core inflation slid by 10bp, but the mix of inflation was hawkish, in our view.
- Underlying services prices rose the most three-months-on-three-months in almost a year.
- Payrolls were stable in March, despite the Iran war, once we adjust for likely revisions.
- Unemployment corrected for last August’s volatile rise and suggests the MPC was too pessimistic.
- Slowing pay growth was dovish, but PAYE median pay and surveys suggest the official data have undershot.
- PM Starmer is under further pressure following news that Peter Mandelson ‘failed’ security vetting.
- A leadership contest remains a distinct possibility and would likely increase the focus on debt sustainability.
- The war in Iran will likely lead to a small loosening of the fiscal stance, but costly measures will be avoided.
- February GDP exaggerates monthly growth, but stripping out noise the economy was growing solidly.
- Oil prices consistently below $100/bl mean we are close to removing our forecast for an MPC rate hike.
- A payroll fall and wage slowdown in this week’s data will keep the MPC cautious about hiking.
- February GDP exaggerates the growth trend, because of erratic gains in a number of sectors.
- But growth was surprisingly strong even if we strip out the noise; the economy was recovering.
- We now look for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices account for almost all of the increase in inflation.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 3.5% in September, from 3.7% previously, as oil prices have fallen back.
- Borrowing costs have jumped since our last gilt market update, as the Iran war boosts inflation fears.
- We think yields have overshot fair pricing and will fall, although more so at the short than long end.
- Higher-for-longer oil prices and rising political risk mean the curve will steepen in 2026.
- The temporary two-week ceasefire is already under strain, suggesting energy prices will remain high...
- ...and the data-flow since the start of the Iran war has been fractionally hawkish, in our view.
- But the MPC will wait for more clarity before jumping, so we expect a hold in April and a rate hike in June.
- We expect the final payrolls reading to show a 7K month-to-month drop in March.
- A small gain in LFS employment means the unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.2%.
- Wage inflation will drop close to the BoE Staff estimate of ‘inflation-target-consistent’ levels.
- Industrial production likely dropped in February, driven by falls in mining output and energy supply…
- ...But strong services activity will boost output growth, leaving GDP on track to rise by 0.2% in Q1.
- The fragile US-Iran ceasefire reduces the chances of a hike to Bank Rate this year, but uncertainties remain.
- Surging fuel costs and a pullback in spending led to a drop in the March PMI.
- We stick to our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect the MPC to place more weight on rocketing input costs rather than slowing demand.
- The DMP will be a slight relief to rate-setters, as firms’ medium-term inflation expectations were little moved.
- …But we see few signs of a swift end to the conflict in Iran, so energy prices are likely to remain high.
- So, we think the MPC will have to hike Bank Rate once in 2026, in June, before cutting twice in 2027.
