UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
- But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
- The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.
- Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
- But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer.
- So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.
- We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
- Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
- Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.
- Consumers added to their savings and took on less credit in October, as the Budget approached.
- Bank lending to firms continues to rise year-over-year, but net external finance raised by PNFCs dropped.
- The housing-market data remain solid; mortgage approvals eased only slightly and transactions rose.
- The Chancellor is gambling on the MPC cutting rates rapidly, but the Budget provides little reason to do so.
- We think gilts are ripe for a sell-off as the market digests the details of shaky Budget plans.
- This week’s data releases will show a only small hit to activity from months of pre-Budget speculation.
- The Budget cuts inflation in 2026 but raises it later, so there is no impact on the medium-term path for rates.
- Latest estimates of the neutral rate continue to suggest little room for the MPC to cut rates quickly.
- The Government will likely support the neutral rate with heavy debt issuance and tight immigration rules.
- A tax-and-spend budget that delayed fiscal consolidation will struggle to drive a sustained gilt rally.
- Measures to cut CPI inflation by 50bp in mid-2026 leave a December rate cut nailed on…
- …but the Budget will boost the MPC’s inflation forecasts fractionally from 2027.
- The Chancellor will likely to confirm a 4.1% rise in the National Living Wage in the Budget…
- …But 18-to-20-year-olds will see a much bigger rise, while the ‘Real Living Wage’ increases 6.7%.
- The BoE now expects a 3.5% rise in pay settlements in 2025, likely supported by hikes for the low paid.
- Backloaded distortionary tax hikes will lack the credibility of an income tax hike.
- Ms. Reeves will struggle to fund the biggest directly inflation reducing measures speculated about.
- Gilt yields are likely to rise after a less disinflationary and credible Budget than expected.
- The bar to data preventing a December MPC rate cut is now very high, in our view…
- …But we expect an extended pause after a December cut, with inflation and growth likely to hold up.
- The Budget will likely be less disinflationary and less credible after Ms. Reeves ditched an income-tax hike.
- The Government’s U-turn on hiking income tax shows that the political situation is deteriorating…
- ...So, we raise our forecast for the 10-year yield to end 2025 at 4.65%, and the 30-year at 5.45%.
- Risks to yields are upward as a potential Labour Party leadership challenge increases the pressure to spend.
- October headline inflation slowing in line with the MPC’s call keeps a December rate cut nailed on.
- We think erratic factors contributed to the decline in services inflation, and it will partly rebound.
- So, we forecast that CPI inflation will hold at 3.6% in November and 3.7% in December.
- Our inflation forecasts factor in a 5% utility price cut in April and maintaining the 5p emergency fuel-duty cut.
- Rumoured Budget measures could cut 2026 inflation 40bp more than we assume, but will be hard to afford.
- The Budget will likely affect inflation little via demand, after the Chancellor ditched an income tax hike.
- The Chancellor ditching an income-tax hike means more back-loaded and shakier fiscal consolidation.
- The government will also likely have to pare back its plans to cut energy utility prices by £200 per year.
- Back-loaded and smaller tax hikes reduce the need for MPC rate cuts in 2026 and raise gilt premia.
- Weak payrolls and a fall in GDP in September make a December rate cut highly likely…
- …But we hold off forecasting a rate cut early next year, as the underlying picture is better than the headlines.
- October inflation will likely fall to 3.5%, but the Budget looks less disinflationary after a political storm.
- Q3 growth undershooting the MPC’s forecast all but seals a December rate cut…
- …But GDP will likely rebound strongly in October and November as erratic industrial drags unwind.
- Growth is far from spectacular, but it seems to be trended only a little below the UK’s potential.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.5% in September, but only just on the rounding.
- Utility-price and airfares base effects cut inflation, but we face unusually large two-sided risks this month.
- Quarterly public rent resets, foreign-student tuition-fee hikes and food prices could surprise our forecast.
- The labour market report was dovish, as it showed employment falling and wage growth easing sharply.
- Weak jobs all but seal a December Bank Rate cut; we are close to forecasting another in spring 2026…
- …But surveys are stable, and we have doubts about the sharp rise in the unemployment rate.
- We expect GDP to rise by 0.1% in September, boosted by solid retail sales and car registrations.
- Industrial production likely cut 8bp from GDP growth in September as a cyber attack halted autos output.
- Resilient economic activity means the MPC has little scope to cut quickly in 2026, in our view.
- The MPC signalled a December rate cut but uncertainty about how many more.
- We look for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter Q3 GDP growth and stable payrolls, in data published this week.
- CPI inflation should drop to 3.5% in October—due November 19—0.1pp below the MPC’s call.
