UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- Soft inflation data and the prospect of greater fiscal headroom mean we cut our gilt-yield forecasts.
- We now expect the two-year gilt yield to end the year at 3.80%, and the 10-year at 4.55%.
- All of the good news is priced into yields, increasing the risk of a post-Budget market disappointment.
- Plenty of small caveats suggest we treat the downside inflation surprise with a little caution…
- ...But the dovish news was too widespread to ignore, so we cut our forecasts and see a December rate cut.
- We still think the MPC will skip a November cut, with inflation nearly double its target.
- The ONS revised down borrowing by £4.2B, as an error in the collection of VAT receipts was corrected…
- …But borrowing is still £7.2B higher than the OBR forecast for the first half of fiscal year 2025/26.
We expect £33B of tax hikes and spending cuts in the Budget, back-loaded to 2029/30.
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- We have thrown in the towel and include in our forecasts a cut to energy bills in November’s Budget.
- All told, we lower our inflation forecast by 16bp for one year from April 2026.
- We struggle to see the Chancellor freezing fuel duty completely though, given the £5B-per-year cost.
- We now expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp in February; previously we expected no change.
- Our rate call change is tactical—five MPC doves seem keen—as sticky inflation requires caution.
- Our hotel price tracker suggests limited impact from the tube strike, but the risk is for a 4.1% inflation print.
- GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in August, after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in July.
- GDP growth will match our call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, 0.4%.
- Underlying GDP growth has slowed due to Budget uncertainty but is still close to potential.
- The next forecast round from the OBR will likely show the Chancellor’s headroom has become a £25B hole.
- We think the government will target headroom of £20B, requiring £35B in tax hikes and spending cuts.
- Stealth, sin, property and pensions taxes will fill most of the black hole in our view.
- MPC doves will seize on weaker-than-expected pay growth, so we now expect a rate cut in February 2026.
- But the underlying story is of stabilising jobs, which will limit the build-up of further slack.
- Accordingly, we think the MPC will be limited to only one more rate cut over the next year.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 4.0% in September from 3.8% in August.
- Motor fuel and airfare base effects should together add 23bp to inflation compared to August.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, so we expect headline inflation to slow only to 3.8% by December.
- The strongest September car sales in five years indicate signs of life in the consumer.
- September’s REC survey points to easing payroll falls, so we look for an 8K month-to-month drop.
- We doubt graduate recruitment will drag much on payroll growth in September.
- We expect the OBR to lower potential GDP growth by 0.1pp per year in the November Budget forecasts.
- Only a small downgrade is needed after payroll-based productivity growth far exceeded OBR forecasts.
- The fiscal watchdog should also avoid becoming unduly pessimistic about a hard-to-forecast variable.
- We expect GDP to be unchanged in August, as an erratic fall in mining output drags on growth…
- …Services activity likely saved GDP from a fall, with rebounds in large sub-sectors boosting growth.
- We think that underlying economic activity remains firm, which will keep the MPC on hold this year.
- We expect the ONS to publish an initial estimate of an 8K month-to-month payrolls fall in September.
- The unemployment rate should hold at 4.7%, suggesting the labour market is loosening only slowly.
- We look for a strong 0.4% month-to-month gain in private sector ex-bonus AWE in August.
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 4.0%, almost rounding to 4.1%, in September, from 3.8% in August.
- A motor fuels base effect will add 10bp to inflation compared to August, and core CPI another 14bp.
- The BRC Shop Price Index points to a jump in clothes inflation, while used-car price inflation picked up.
- September’s weak PMI sharpens the downside risk to our calls, but we stick to 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3.
- GDP growth was well balanced in H1, and credit flows point to solid private demand in Q3 too.
- Stubborn wages and inflation in the DMP, as spare capacity fails to open up, imply a cautious MPC.
- Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
- Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
- Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.
- Gilt auctions are still well supported, and financial conditions are orderly, despite high uncertainty…
- ...but yields will remain high as the MPC stays on hold and markets demand a premium for political risk.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year gilt yields to end 2025 at their current rates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
- Growth in the first half of the year looks well-balanced once we average out tariff and tax front-running.
- Downward revisions to the saving rate in 2022-to-23 suggest the latest figures will also be cut eventually.
- Sharp falls in the profit share are likely to be partly resolved by price hikes later this year and in 2026.
- Accelerating corporate borrowing growth and strong consumer credit bode well for August GDP.
- Bank lending to firms is rising at the fastest rate since at least 2012, if we ignore pandemic disruption.
- Solid credit flows and a robust housing market suggest interest rates are only slightly restrictive.
- Data in the past month have been a mixed bag, but underlying activity is holding up well.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Solid growth will limit the emergence of spare capacity, keeping the MPC on hold for the rest of 2025.
