UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- The housing market was solid before the energy price shock, but activity will grind lower in 2026.
- Measures of supply are ticking up, which will put further pressure on prices.
- We look for house price inflation of 1.0% in Q4 2026, down from our previous forecast of 3.0%.
- Unrevised GDP growth of 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4 2025 confirms the pre-Budget hit to activity.
- The saving rate rose to 9.9% in Q4, from 9.1% in Q3, showing consumers can smooth spending in 2026.
- The current account deficit widened in Q4 and will remain weak in 2026 as energy prices jump.
- Healthy credit flows and stable saving patterns suggest confident consumers.
- The activity data will slow in the coming months, but consumers can use savings to smooth spending.
- Business lending was rising, on the back of lower policy uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts.
- The data-flow over the past month has been solid, with underlying growth rising and payrolls stabilising…
- ...But the war in Iran means we cut our growth forecasts and raise our inflation projections.
- We see rates on hold in 2026, but it is hard to argue with market pricing for several hikes.
- Guarded language from the MPC suggests some pushback against market pricing of three hikes in 2026.
- But rate-setters must be wary, given de-anchored inflation expectations and low trust in the central bank.
- The Spring Statement outlines high levels of issuance, which will continue to push up the neutral rate.
- Headline inflation was unchanged at 3.0% in February, as a rise in core CPI offset weaker services inflation.
- Services inflation above the MPC’s forecast will leave rate-setters more worried about second-round effects…
- Inflation will trough at 2.8% in April before rising back up to 3.7% in November.
- The PMI points to GDP growth easing in Q1, but still broadly in line with rate-setters’ expectations.
- We stick with our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q1, but with downside risks to that call.
- The MPC will wait for more data before making judgements on how the war is impacting the economy.
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
- Higher-for-longer energy prices raise our inflation forecast, and we now build in second-round effects.
- We cut our GDP growth forecast another 0.5%—now 0.8% since the war started—partly due to higher rates.
- Market pricing for three hikes is too many, but not wildly too many given upside risk to energy.
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
- We expect the data flow to soften as the implications of the war in Iran feed into surveys.
- But the PMI held up for two months after Russia’s invasion in 2022; the housing market will react faster.
- The MPC’s focus on spare capacity means the job data will be crucial for forecasting the path for rates.
- Inflation will peak at over 5% if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, requiring hikes to Bank Rate.
- An oil price below $125 leaves the MPC just enough room to hold rates, but it is borderline in some cases.
- The MPC will need clarity over energy supplies in late summer to be sure a second price spike is avoided.
- Erratic falls in equipment manufacturing and mining kept GDP unchanged month-to-month in January.
- We lower our forecast for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3% previously.
- War in Iran is a serious downside risk to activity, but we expect slower growth rather than a sudden stop.
- Markets are pricing a more persistent energy-price rise as the war in Iran continues.
- As a result, markets have started to price in higher medium- as well as short-term inflation.
- We see Bank Rate on hold throughout 2026, but that is sensitive to energy and the government’s response.
- We expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate on hold next week, with Ms. Dhingra and Mr. Taylor voting for a cut.
- The data flow has been slightly dovish lately, but war in Iran has ripped up the ‘disinflation’ playbook.
- Guidance will shift towards giving rate-setters the option to hike in 2026, if required.
- We plot how the 2026 energy surge, and position of the UK economy, compares to 2022.
- Oil and natural-gas prices have so far risen by a similar percentage to 2022, but may be fading sooner.
- More spare capacity exists and M4 growth is slower than in 2022, but inflation expectations are deanchored.
- We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
- President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.
- We expect inflation to trough at 2.6% in June and peak at 3.4% in December, given energy futures yesterday.
- We expect the flash payroll estimate to show a 5K month-to-month fall in February.
- Private-sector wage growth should tick up in January, and surveys suggest stabilisation ahead.
- The MPC’s hopes of hitting the inflation target will have to wait another year if commodity prices are sustained.
- So, we expect the MPC to wait until April to ease, and see only one rate cut this year.
- A quick end to the war would bring forward cuts, but a protracted conflict would mean no reductions this year.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.9% in February, from 3.0% in January.
- A fall in motor fuel prices, slowing rent inflation, and a drop in live music and hotel prices drag inflation down.
- Commodity price rises mean inflation will sink to only 2.4% in June and rebound to 3.0% in September.
