UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Weekly Monitor
- Collapsing payrolls in May look inconsistent with stable or improving survey-based measures of jobs.
- The soft data suggest the worst of the slowdown caused by the payroll-tax hike is behind us.
- Stable economic growth, driven by less trade-related uncertainty, will give a hawkish tint to the job data.
- The PMI’s headline activity index rose in June but still signals unchanged quarter-to-quarter GDP in Q2…
- …But we think the PMI continues to underestimate activity and retain our call for GDP growth of 0.2%.
- The services output balance fell sharply in June, but that drop looks erratic; the MPC will wait for clarity.
- Soft data and one more dove than expected last week nudge up the chances of an August rate cut.
- We see the bar to a majority in August higher than the market does and retain our call for a November cut.
- June’s flash PMI will give a steer on Q2 GDP, and a host of MPC speeches will shed light on guidance.
- The MPC kept rates on hold in June, but one more member than we expected voted to cut by 25bp.
- Rate-setters left their key guidance paragraph broadly unchanged; “gradual and careful” remains the mantra.
- We still expect just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2025, in November.
- Inflation fell in May, as the ONS chopped 0.1pp off price growth to correct for the error in April’s data.
- Headline CPI at 3.4% in May, down from 3.5%, would have been unchanged without the ONS’s adjustment.
- Energy price increases mean we now expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in September, up from 3.6% before.
- Official house price inflation will slow in April as stamp-duty disruption feeds through.
- The slowdown will be short-lived, with forward-looking activity indicators improving in May.
- We retain our call for house prices to rise 4.5% year-over-year in 2025.
- Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
- Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
- Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.
- The MPC will be in a pickle if oil prices rise another 5-to-10%, as inflation would peak close to 4%.
- Payrolls and GDP exaggerate weakness; we expect rebounds in June and May, respectively.
- We look for 3.4% CPI inflation in May and little change to the MPC’s “gradual and careful” guidance.
- The unwinding of tariff and tax-hike front-running dragged down GDP growth in April…
- …But the monthly fall looks exaggerated to us, so we expect GDP to rebound in May.
- We thus only shave our forecast for Q2 GDP growth, to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, from 0.3% previously.
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s meeting.
- Payrolls lift the chance of an August cut, but the MPC will likely stick to its “gradual and cautious” guidance.
- We are comfortable assuming only one more rate cut in this cycle, even if it may now come sooner.
- May’s huge fall in payrolls looks exaggerated; other indicators, such as redundancies, are improving.
- Rising LFS employment and falling payrolls point to workers shifting towards self-employment.
- Wage growth is easing gradually but still remains way above inflation-target-consistent rates.
- We expect CPI inflation in May to slow to 3.4%—close to rounding to 3.3%—from 3.5% in April.
- A correction to Vehicle Excise Duty and airfare falls will be partly offset by strong food and clothes prices.
- May’s CPI inflation will likely match the MPC’s forecast, and services inflation will slightly exceed it.
- We think the chances of a ‘skip’ at the August MPC meeting are higher than the market assumes.
- Inflation will likely run above 2% beyond 2026, disinflation has slowed and GDP is trending up solidly.
- Food for the doves next week, with payroll and GDP falls likely; but Q2 GDP is still set to grow 0.3% q/q.
- The ONS overstated April CPI by 0.1pp because of an error in Vehicle Duty; this will be corrected in May CPI.
- We adjust our forecasts only fractionally because we had assumed a good chance that VED was wrong.
- Strong goods prices mean inflation should slow only to 3.4% in May, from the erroneous 3.5% in April.
- The May PMI shows UK growth still weak, but recovering as April’s tariff panic fades.
- GDP growth usually far exceeds the PMI steer when uncertainty is high; we look for 0.3% q/q growth in Q2.
- Services firms squeezing margins holds out the hope of inflation easing, but we think it’s just a blip.
- We expect the initial estimate of May payrolls to show a 26K month-to-month decline.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.6% in April, and LFS employment should gain 48K.
- We expect year-over-year whole-economy AWE ex-bonus growth to fall to 5.3% in April, from 5.6%.
- Consumers are back to spending rather than saving, which should keep GDP growth ticking along.
- Households seem to be reducing saving, and borrowing on credit cards to support spending.
- Manufacturing is past the worst, and so far we see little sign of trade diversion cutting goods inflation.
- We expect GDP to fall 0.1% month-to-month in April, as tariff front-running unwinds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2, above the MPC’s projection, 0.1%.
- A resilient economy is supporting our call for just one more 25bp cut to Bank Rate this year.
- Our early calculations suggest CPI inflation will fall only slightly in May, to 3.4%.
- Clothes, computer games, hotel prices and food should mostly offset a fall in travel prices.
- Duty hikes scheduled for 2026 will support headline inflation; we expect more duty hikes to be announced.
- The tariff shock is fading and Q1 GDP beat consensus, so we raise our 2025 growth forecast to 1.3%.
- Inflation will hover around 3.4% for the rest of 2025, and drop below 3.0% again only next April.
- Easing uncertainty, elevated inflation and growth momentum mean just one more rate cut in 2025.
