UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Weekly Monitor
- We raise our forecast for year-over-year GDP growth in 2025 to 1.6%, from 1.4% previously.
- Strong GDP growth so far this year suggests that the drag from interest rate hikes is fading.
- A 3.2% rise in household real income in 2024 will power GDP gains of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Keir Starmers’ huge majority will allow him to quickly enact supply side reforms, starting with planning.
- We expect an Autumn Budget to boost government borrowing £10-£20B a year.
- The MPC will still cut rates in September, but they will reduce rates only gradually after that.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Q1 GDP growth was raised to 0.7% quarter-to quarter, and the expansion was broad-based.
- We expect GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, and 0.3% in Q3 and Q4...
- ...As strong real income growth and stabilising saving boost consumer spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
- The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WAGES AND SERVICES INFLATION REMAIN ELEVATED
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN SEPTEMBER, CAUTIOUSLY
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The headline PMI dropped to 51.7, suggesting growth will slow to just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Resilient new orders and hints of an election-driven spending pause suggest the PMI will rebound.
- The services output price balance is little changed in 11 months, pointing to sticky price pressures.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The MPC can take some comfort from one-year consumer inflation expectations falling back to average.
- But five-year expectations are elevated, and trust in the central bank is failing to recover as inflation falls.
- Trust in the BoE is faring worse than trust in the ECB, suggesting UK inflation will prove more persistent.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The next government will inherit no fiscal headroom and implausible public-spending forecasts.
- The Labour Party has ruled out increases to three-quarters of the tax base, limiting options.
- We expect the next government to raise duties, tier BoE reserves, and increase public spending.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
PERSISTENCE PERSISTS...
- ...THE MPC WILL CUT IN AUGUST, THEN ONCE A QUARTER
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The BoE money and credit data suggest higher mortgage rates have taken the steam out of consumption.
- But the consumer credit data are distorted by data issues, and saving was driven by a record ISA flow.
- Business confidence is still rising, so we think the economy will keep growing robustly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- GDP grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, the strongest since Q4 2021.
- The recovery has been broad-based across sectors and will continue as consumers spend rising income.
- Strong growth shows interest rates are likely not as restrictive as the MPC is factoring in.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The April composite PMI signals 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
- Rising new orders and buoyant business confidence suggest that solid growth will be maintained.
- Services inflation slowed according to the PMI, but input costs surged after April’s minimum-wage hike.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
